The potential for a cold snap to drive strong UK import demand in spring has helped to lift its gas prices to a premium to nearby markets this week, given the shift to a tighter global LNG balance.
The UK NBP front-month price rising above neighbouring markets at least partly reflects the UK's heightened vulnerability to global LNG supply disruptions in the event of a cold snap, despite sufficient supply in the country under normal weather conditions.
The UK March, April and May contracts have all moved above nearby markets this week from discounts previously, as traders reacted to the halt of transit through the strait of Hormuz and the shut-in of all Qatari LNG supply. The NBP front-month price closed at a 0.875p/th premium to the Dutch TTF on Thursday and was 2.15p/th above France's Peg and 1.26p/th above Belgium's ZTP.
QatarEnergy holds long-term capacity at the South Hook and Isle of Grain terminals, so the heightened price reaction in the UK may be partly because of traders factoring in the loss of this supply. But the premium for the spring period may be largely down to weather risks.
Given the UK's limited storage space relative to demand, the country is dependent on LNG imports to meet spikes in demand in the winter.
And available LNG supply for Europe is poised to be low in April, given diversions to Asia. UK LNG sendout could only be a fraction of 15.8mn m³/d in April last year and the 40.6mn m ³/d three-year average for the month.
If the UK were to face a cold snap in April, NBP prices might need to rise sharply to attract extra LNG supply to the UK and encourage firms to direct Norwegian pipeline gas to the UK ahead of other markets.
UK gas consumption would average 152.2mn m³/d in April if the relationship between aggregate consumption and degree heating days (HDDs) is in line with that in April across the past three years and HDDs match the 10-year average. This would be up from 127.1mn m³/d in April last year. But a repeat of the coldest April in the past 10 years would boost consumption to 177.6mn m³/d.
Domestic production will only cover part of this demand. Production could be 78.8mn m³/d in April, down from 84.6mn m³/d a year earlier, if it falls in line with the most recent projections from the North Sea Transition Authority.
If Norwegian pipeline flows to the UK hold steady from their rate, according to nominations in the past three days, the UK would receive a net 88.6mn m³/d from Norway.
Assuming barely any flow in either direction on the BBL and Interconnector pipelines — in line with 4-5 March — the UK would have supply in excess of consumption of 15.2mn m³/d in an average HDD scenario. But a cold April would leave 10.2mn m³/d unmet through domestic demand and pipeline flows.
Even if UK storage was used to meet some of the supply gap, this is unlikely to be enough to cover the entire shortfall. The UK held 6.7TWh of gas in storage as of Friday morning.
And additional maintenance at Norwegian and UK assets or weak renewable generation could further tighten the supply-demand balance for April.
Norwegian production capacity constraints are planned at 9.5mn m³/d for April, up from 6.2mn m³/d in March but below 26.6mn m³/d a year earlier, according to Norwegian offshore operator Gassco. But additional unplanned maintenance may further weigh on flows.
Meanwhile, UK gas grid operator National Gas expects 6mn m³/d of capacity to be unavailable at the Barrow gas terminal throughout April, according to a Remit message. Flows at the terminal averaged 300,000 m³/d in February and 1.7mn m³/d in April last year.
And in a scenario with an extended period of Dunkelflaute — when cold, cloudy and still weather cuts renewable generation — gas consumption for power generation would rise sharply, which would further tighten the balance.
