Saudi Arabia has begun diverting crude exports to Yanbu on the Red Sea, but pipeline constraints and the port's limited loading capacity mean the route can only partially offset the loss of exports through the strait of Hormuz.
The war in the Middle East has effectively halted oil and gas flows through the strait, which typically handles around 14mn b/d of Mideast Gulf crude shipments. The disruption has forced Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers to shut in some production because of limited storage and alternative export outlets.
It is "the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced", Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said on Tuesday. To offset the loss of shipments via Hormuz, Nasser said Aramco will soon be using the full 7mn b/d capacity of Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline, which links the kingdom's eastern oil fields to the port of Yanbu. This would allow Aramco "to meet the majority of our customers' requirements", Nasser said.
Increasing exports via Yanbu, however, cannot fully replace lost Hormuz flows or allow Aramco to run at full capacity. Saudi Arabia produced 9.48mn b/d of crude in 2025 and maintains a maximum sustainable capacity of 12.2mn b/d. It exported 6.3mn b/d of crude and 1.4mn b/d of refined products last year, according to data from trade analytics platform Kpler. About 5.5mn b/d of crude was shipped via Hormuz from Mideast Gulf ports — mainly Ras Tanura — while only 760,000 b/d was exported via the Red Sea.
Aramco typically ships around 2mn b/d of crude to its Red Sea refineries, leaving about 5mn b/d of pipeline capacity for exports from Yanbu. But the port may not be able to handle such volumes. Its nominal loading capacity is about 4.5mn b/d across two terminals — 1.5mn b/d at Yanbu North and 3mn b/d at Yanbu South. Market sources put effective capacity closer to 4mn b/d, although this has not been tested. The highest combined volume ever loaded from the terminals was 1.7mn b/d in August 2024, Kpler data show.
Yanbu also has less storage than Ras Tanura and appears unable to handle all Aramco crude grades. It is currently holding about 22mn bl, around 60pc of capacity, Kpler says. Nasser said Arab Light and Arab Extra Light would be prioritised for export from the port.
Even if Aramco can raise Yanbu loadings to 4mn b/d, further constraints remain. Of Yanbu's 760,000 b/d exports last year, around 630,000 b/d went north through Egypt to European buyers. The rest moved south through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint to Asia-Pacific.
Bab el-Mandeb poses a significant risk for redirecting Asia-bound shipments because of continued threats from Yemen's Houthi militants. Aramco could send more crude north through Egypt, but tankers bound for Asia would then need to travel via the Cape of Good Hope, adding sailing time and raising freight costs.
Northbound shipments from Yanbu sail to Egypt's Ain Sukhna, where crude enters the 2.3mn b/d Sumed pipeline for delivery to Sidi Kerir in the Mediterranean. VLCCs can load at Yanbu but cannot cross the Suez Canal fully laden. They must discharge part of their cargo into the Sumed pipeline and reload at Sidi Kerir.
