Japan's beef imports are projected to rise slightly in 2026, supported by tourism food service demand and a declining domestic cattle herd, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's Global Agriculture Information Network.
Japan's annual beef imports are forecast at 680,000t for 2026, a 0.7pc increase on 2025 levels. Japan's beef imports totalled 675,000t in 2025, down by 8.2pc from 2024, data from the USDA show. Australia remained Japan's largest supplier in 2025 at 50pc of imported volumes, followed by the US with 36pc. Australian beef prices rose by 11pc in 2025, approaching parity with US prices. Japanese buyers may adjust their purchasing mix if Australian prices surpass US values in 2026, potentially increasing the US' market share.
Japan's total beef consumption is forecast to stay flat in 2026. Retail demand continues to fall as consumers manage food budgets on persistent inflation and real wage declines, but tourism food service demand is likely to partly offset this.
Retail beef purchases fell by 2pc in 2025, extending a five-year downtrend. Retailers are attempting to manage prices by mixing higher- and lower-priced cuts to maintain affordability for domestic consumers. Demand has shifted toward lower priced frozen beef, while chilled beef volumes have fallen. Food service demand was much stronger, supported by record tourist arrivals, which rose by 16pc in 2025. High-end dining categories have benefitted, helping to offset weaker consumption among domestic households.
Livestock slaughter totalled 1.1mn head in 2025, down slightly from 1.11mn head in 2024, the report said. Japan's total cattle inventory is projected to decline on the year in 2026 to 1.06mn head because of fewer breeding cows and weak economics for importing feeder cattle. Further depreciation of the Japanese yen is also raising procurement costs. The tighter herd will limit calf production and reduce overall slaughter numbers, led primarily by lower dairy cow throughput. The use of sex-determined semen in the dairy sector has resulted in fewer male dairy calves being born, putting additional downward pressure on herd numbers.
Commercial beef production in Japan totalled an estimated 500,000t in 2025, a 1.1pc decline from 2024 levels. Beef production is expected to fall again in 2026 to 485,000t, reflecting the declining domestic cattle inventory, although it is anticipated to be supported by heavier Japanese wagyu making up a larger proportion of the slaughter. The higher carcass weights of the wagyu cattle will partly compensate for the smaller slaughter numbers.
