Fuel distributors have expressed concerns, albeit measured, about the availability of gasoline in Brazil's center-south, thanks to changes in refiners' selling strategies and higher prices for oil products amid an increase in domestic demand.
Demand for fuels has increase since the beginning of the US-Iran war on 28 February, according to major distributors. That is partly caused by a perception that buyers want to build up stocks because of uncertainties in the international market.
The shift in market dynamics intersects with a projected rise in domestic consumption. Unblended gasoline demand in March is expected to rise by 8pc from the same month in 2025, reaching 2.8bn liters (569,000 b/d), according to a survey conducted by Argus of analysts at Brazil's largest fuel distributors and producers.
State-controlled Petrobras chief executive Magda Chambriard said on 13 March that there are no disruptions in domestic fuel supply. Petrobras was responsible for around 81pc of the 30bn liters of gasoline produced in Brazil in 2025, according to data from the hydrocarbons regulator ANP.
Distributors, however, are struggling to increase quotas with the company, which is limiting withdrawals to a day-quote or below in some cases. The situation is prompting some participants to seek imported products.
Lineup data from maritime transport agencies points to around 190mn liters of foreign gasoline arriving at Brazilian ports in March, with around 86pc of the volume destined for ports in the northeast.
That volume would represent an almost 58pc increase from the 120mn liters imported in March 2025 but still below the 285mn liters and 435mn liters imported in January and February of 2026, respectively, according to trade ministry data.
On 17 March, offers for imported unblended gasoline for prompt delivery in Santos reached R1,650/m³ (120¢/USG) above Petrobras' reference prices in Paulinia, in Sao Paulo state. On 24 February — before the beginning of the war — offers were around R120/m³ above reference prices, according to market participants.
Even participants who have products available for sale are opting to hold on to the fuel and ensure maintaining their own inventories.
On 13 March, the replacement cost for imported unblended gasoline delivered to Santos or Paranagua reached R1,265/m³ above Petrobras prices in Paulinia. That compares with a discount of approximately R20/m³ on 27 February, the eve of the US and Israel's first strikes in Iran.
Despite the nearly 50pc difference between the price of the imported product and the fuel traded at Petrobras refineries, changes to Petrobras' gasoline prices in the coming weeks are unlikely, Chambriard said.
The sector is still closely monitoring the company's gasoline tenders, which it defines as a "complement the regular supply of products in a competitive and transparent manner."
Petrobras held tenders for 550mn liters and 440mn liters of gasoline in January-February, respectively, in central-southern hubs, with delivery scheduled for subsequent months.
A tender for 95mn liters planned for 16 March with initial bids starting at premiums of R980/m from the company's regular prices was postponed, with no new date set, according to market participants.
