The eight core Opec+ members scheduled to meet today to discuss May output policy have agreed on a production increase but are still discussing the volume, delegate sources told Argus, despite conflict in the Mideast Gulf disrupting the group's supplies.
"Another increase in production is being agreed," the delegate sources said, adding that the volume is "not fully decided yet."
Asked where the increase would come from, given production cuts across Mideast Gulf producers following Iran's shutdown of the strait of Hormuz, a source said: "It will come."
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan agreed on 1 March to raise their collective crude production ceiling by 206,000 b/d in April. The increase is part of a process the group began in April 2025 to unwind a large set of production cuts.
That meeting came a day after the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran, and before Tehran moved to block trade routes through the strait of Hormuz, limiting oil flows to global markets from the world's most critical waterway, which typically handles around 15mn b/d of crude supply.
This has pushed Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to either reduce production or shut in volumes entirely, with Kuwait declaring force majeure on oil exports.
Production from these four countries — all part of the Opec+ core group — is estimated to have fallen by a combined 9.15mn b/d, according to Argus assessments, versus February levels.
