Brazil's hydrocarbon regulator ANP expects the first issuance of biomethane guarantee-of-origin certificates (CGOBs) to take place in May, a milestone that would trigger compliance obligations under the Fuel of the Future law.
Speaking at a panel during the I-REC Day Brazil event in Sao Paulo on Tuesday, ANP director Maria Auxiliadora Nobre said 2026 obligations will be adjusted to reflect the timing of the first issuance. Instead of applying the annual mandate in full, the target will be calculated on a pro-rata basis, meaning only the remaining months of the year after the first CGOB issuance will count toward compliance.
Under this structure, CGOB demand in 2026 is expected to be lower than under a full-year mandate, aligning compliance volumes with initial supply availability. Nobre said the agency will formally notify the market once the issuance platform is fully operational.
The panel also discussed how the timing of the first issuance could shape early supply-and-demand dynamics and delay price formation. Luis Felipe Poli, business development manager for gas and energy at Petrobras, said buyers already see economic value in the environmental attribute associated with gas, although clearer pricing signals are expected only once issuance begins.
On the supply side, Tayane Vieira, head of ESG and government relations at biomethane producer Gas Verde, said 2026 is likely to be a transition year, with market participants testing volumes, certification procedures and demand patterns as the regulated market starts operating alongside voluntary schemes.
From the demand perspective, Adrianno Lorenzon, natural gas director at industrial consumers' association Abrace Energia, cautioned that the regulated mandate should not crowd out voluntary demand in the early phase, warning that distortions could affect liquidity and price discovery.
Luciano Figueredo, project manager at certification body Instituto Totum, said discussions around certificate fungibility and differentiation by carbon intensity could initially fragment liquidity, with pricing premiums only emerging once trading gains scale.
The panel concluded that, while regulatory uncertainty remains, the first CGOB issuance will mark the shift from policy design to market execution, with early prices likely reflecting limited supply and cautious demand from obligated parties.
