Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz has yet to rise since the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, as shipowners wait for clarity on security arrangements and insurance cover for transits.
US president Donald Trump said the ceasefire depends on free transit through Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil flows. But AIS data do not yet show a surge in transits.
Trump agreed to the two-week ceasefire with Iran on 7 April, subject to what he described as the "complete, immediate and safe opening" of the strait of Hormuz.
Iran's supreme national security council confirmed the ceasefire but said the proposal under discussion would enshrine "continued Iranian control over the strait", according to Iran's Tasnim news agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
A small number of vessel movements via the strait have emerged since the announcement, including the Greek-owned bulk carrier NJ Earth and the Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, according to vessel tracking firm MarineTraffic. But overall traffic has remained limited.
The ceasefire could allow commercial shipping flows to recover after weeks of minimal traffic caused by security risks and insurance restrictions during fighting between the US, Israel and Iran. The fact that transits have not accelerated yet reflects uncertainty over technical, security and insurance details.
"The shipping industry is currently awaiting technical details from the US and from Iran on how to transit the strait of Hormuz safely," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association Bimco. He noted that Iran continues to seek control over the waterway.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) welcomes the ceasefire and is "working with the relevant parties to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships through the strait of Hormuz", secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez said.
Maritime security firm Ambrey said Iran has maintained control over the strait, despite US demands for unrestricted passage. It expects the risk to shipping in the Mideast Gulf to ease while the ceasefire is in place, but warned there remains "a realistic possibility of continued risk to unauthorised strait of Hormuz transits, as well as to Israel- and US-affiliated shipping attempting to transit".
Market participants said crude cargo numbers in the Mideast Gulf appear to be rising, but added that activity remains tentative until insurers spell out cover terms and protocols.
