Turkey will produce 20.5mn t of wheat — including durum — in the 2026-27 (June-May) season, up from 16.5mn t year earlier, on favourable rains and strong NDVI readings in key planting areas, according to Argus.
Turkish farmers will begin harvesting wheat in July. Argus raised its output forecast to 20.5mn t of wheat last week because of improved NDVI — an indicator of crop growth and development — readings, and larger planted areas. Market participants expect output to reach 23mn t. Turkey could produce 22mn-23mn t if favourable weather persists, according to Argus.
The country is also expected to harvest wheat from a larger area at 7.45mn hectares (ha), according to Argus forecasts. The forecast would be the largest since 2018-19, when farmers harvested 7.8mn ha, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show.
That said, a few planting areas in Turkey are facing poor growth, according to the EU's Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (Asap) system. Rains across most regions in early 2026 have benefited wheat crops, and only five provinces — Mersin, Adana, Osmaniye, Gaziantep and Kilis — are seeing either water shortages or poor crop development, Asap data show. Across these provinces, 27-71pc of crop areas are experiencing poor vegetation.
Although these provinces show worse growth than the rest of the country, conditions have improved on the year, when all five had 100pc poor rain coverage and severe water deficits affecting 44-97pc of areas.
Central Anatolia — Turkey's largest wheat-growing region — has more land with abundant vegetation than with poor vegetation, indicating higher yields, according to Asap. The Konya weather station in central Anatolia recorded above-average rainfall since the start of 2026, totalling 149mm in January-April compared with a 10-year average of 100mm for the same period, Speedwell Climate data show. By contrast, Adana received 971mm in the same period, up from an average of 284mm. The excess rainfall possibly harmed vegetation by overwatering soils and washing out fertilizer and nutrients.
Central Anatolian areas are forecast to receive 6-19mm of rain in the coming week, according to weather projections, in line with the 10mm weekly average in Konya, suggesting continued favourable conditions.
Higher wheat output for the coming marketing year is likely to reduce Turkey's reliance on imports. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Turkey's 2026-27 wheat imports at 6.5mn t, while Argus projects 4mn t, down from an average of 8.4mn t in 2021-26, USDA data show. Some have even started to expect a wheat import ban to come into force from July, as a result of favourable crop conditions in the country, market participants said, although any final decision on such a ban may only come in late June immediately before local harvests. Few in the market see the possibility of an import ban at present, they added.
Global fertilizer price rises could limit application and affect protein levels at this stage of growth, but Turkey's agriculture ministry said it will manage fertilizer risks, including removing customs duties for certain fertilizers, such as DAP.
