Mexico's economy expanded a minimal 0.1pc in the first quarter of 2026, as solid expansion in the services sector was offset by contraction in the industrial and agriculture sectors.
Annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was well below the upwardly revised 1.8pc growth recorded for the fourth quarter,statistics agency Inegi reported. It followed 0.1pc contractions in the second and third quarters of 2025, the first quarterly contractions since the first quarter of 2021.
Industrial sector output, which includes manufacturing, construction and mining, contracted 1.3pc after posting 0.4pc expansion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The services sector expanded 0.7pc, after marking 2.2pc growth in the previous quarter.
The primary sector, which includes agriculture, fishing, mining and hydrocarbon extraction, contracted 0.1pc in the first quarter, following revised 7.2pc growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The annualized first-quarter result was below the 0.3pc growth estimated by Mexican banks Banamex and Banorte.
Banorte is forecasting the economy will accelerate in the second quarter, on World Cup matches scheduled in Mexico for June and July and a resumption of federal spending on key infrastructure projects.
The bank will also closely track trade talks in the runup to the USMCA free trade agreement renewal set for July with a positive outcome seen as likely, but the bank's views reflect comments from economy minister Marcelo Ebrard and US trade representative Jamieson Greer last week that zero tariffs are unlikely to remain part of the treaty.
"We believe negotiations will conclude with some technical adjustments within a 12–18 month timeframe," said Banorte.
