Nigeria has issued permits for the import of over 700,000t of gasoline — up from permits for only 180,000t issued in March — heading off a fuel shortage projected by downstream regulator NMDPRA for the end of the second quarter, sources told Argus.
The import permits were granted to product marketers AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono, Matrix, Nipco and Pinnacle — which were also the recipients in March of all but one of the seven permits issued for the first quarter. The new permits are each in the range of 60,000–180,000t, sources in NMDPRA and a large international trading firm said.
Nigeria strictly limited gasoline import permits in January–April and has seen intense political conflict between importers and domestic refiners this year. Sources told Argus that pressure on the government from importers would peak whenever gasoline prices at Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery rose above import parity prices in February–April.
NMDPRA data shows Dangote accounted for 92pc of Nigerian gasoline supply in February, edging down to 85pc in March, on the back of import permits issued that month. Dangote increased gasoline supply to the domestic market by about 16pc on the month to 34,000 t/d in April, but that was below NMDPRA's 42,000 t/d adequate supply target. The refiner exported more gasoline after the US-Iran war started as that was more profitable, sources told Argus. Gasoline exports were aimed at supporting neighbouring countries through the geopolitical crisis, Dangote told Argus last week. The refiner has maintained production above 46,000 t/d in April and May, up from 41,000 t/d in March, according to regulatory data.
Nigeria's import permits are valid only until the end of the quarter they cover with additional and strict regulatory approvals required for product delivery delayed beyond the three-month period covered by permits under which cargoes are imported. Permits were usually issued in advance of the relevant quarter, but have been granted well into the relevant quarter this year.
First quarter gasoline import permits issued to the six companies in mid-March totalled 180,000t, compared with permits for 4.3mn t to cover the fourth quarter of 2025 that were issued to 43 companies in September. The March permits required the intervention of President Bola Tinubu with the NMDPRA chief executive, sources close to the presidency and in NMDPRA told Argus. Tinubu replaced that NMDPRA chief last week — having only appointed him in December because the six marketers' permits were not renewed for the second quarter, the sources said.
The former NMDPRA chief executive changed regulatory policy this year to issue import permits only to fill gaps in domestic refinery supply. Nigeria previously maintained a 30-day gasoline stocks sufficiency floor, or 1.26mn t, for guiding the issuance of import permits. But the former NMDPRA chief reduced that to 20 days from January as part of the new policy, sources said. The country was down to about 16 days' supply by 24 April, and was projected to face shortages towards the end of the quarter when Tinubu made the NMDPRA chief executive change.
The new NMDPRA chief executive, who stopped being Dangote chief commercial officer last year, told Nigeria's senate, "Energy security doesn't mean just having enough products for 20 days or 30 days but [ensuring] adequate stock that can be used as a buffer should there be a shortfall in production or in importation," before he was confirmed by the legislative body on 5 May.
Tinubu said the most senior NMDPRA official should oversee regulatory operations in an acting capacity before confirmation of the new chief executive. The new import permits were issued under that arrangement, an NMDPRA source told Argus. International traders, including BP, are holding stocks of Nigerian spec gasoline offshore west Africa and gasoline deliveries to Nigeria will start with the issuance of the permits, two sources told Argus.
