Northwest Europe only received 1.64mn t of diesel and other gasoil by sea from other regions in April, the lowest monthly total in at least a decade, according to Vortexa tracking.
The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz since the start of March has not only cut off direct shipments from the Mideast Gulf to northwest Europe, but created shortages in other regions that are now competing harder for other diesel supply that northwest Europe might have received.
May is on track for a similar import volume, since only 500,000t was received in the first 10 days of the month. These volumes would put April and May each roughly 40pc down year-on-year, down by 1mn t/month, or by 30,000-35,000 t/day.
Stock data is limited and lagged in Europe compared with the US, but it is clear that diesel stocks have been drawn down significantly over recent weeks. German private diesel tanks were only around 50pc filled in early May, five points below the floor of the previous five-year average, according to Argus MDX data. Independent gasoil stocks at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) were 12pc lower year-on-year in early May, according to consultancy Insights Global, after five consecutive weekly declines. This year's spring refinery maintenance schedule has been relatively light, but would be expected to call stocks into action even so. During the previous spring maintenance period in the three months to April 2025, EU diesel stocks were drawn down by 1.6mn t or around 4pc.
As recently as March, northwest Europe received 1.59mn t of diesel and other gasoil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar together. Then in April, as the impact of the closure of the strait of Hormuz began to tell, only 360,000t arrived from those origins. In the first 10 days of May, only 100,000t arrived, entirely from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports.
The closure of the strait of Hormuz is not only limiting supplies from the Middle East. High prices in Asia, backwardated markets in Europe and soaring freight costs have stopped Indian supply coming west too: northwest Europe received 250,000t from India in March, but zero in April or May so far. Around 140,000t of Reliance diesel on the Suezmax tanker Cap Grace was off Mozambique on 14 May, heading south. It could become the first Reliance diesel to reach northwest Europe in around two months.
Including shipments from other northwest European ports, diesel and gasoil receipts at northwest European ports are still at the lowest in a decade, at 3.55mn t in April and only 1.17mn t in the first 10 days of May.
