The disruptions to energy supplies caused by the US-Israel war with Iran may not fully resolve until the middle of 2027, even if the conflict ends soon, Abu Dhabi state-owned Adnoc's chief executive Sultan al-Jaber has said.
"Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80pc of pre-conflict flows and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027," al-Jaber told an Atlantic Council event.
For the UAE's operations, he said damage and costs are still being assessed.
"The time it will take to get back to full operational capacity… is case by case," he said. "Some will take several weeks and some will take several months."
The UAE has borne the brunt of Iranian attacks in the 2½ months since the US and Israel began the war, with al-Jaber acknowledging today damage to Adnoc infrastructure and facilities. Iran has also effectively closed the strait of Hormuz, leading the UAE to seek alternative routes to market for its energy products. Al-Jaber said a new crude pipeline to the port of Fujairah, outside Hormuz, is "more than 50pc complete".
"Energy security is no longer about your ability to continue to produce," al-Jaber said today. "It is about routes, storage and redundancy. Too much of the world's energy still moves through too few chokepoints." He said if Iran manages to retain control of Hormuz, "then freedom of navigation is finished".
"If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences," he said.
Al-Jaber also called for the energy sector to address "underinvestment".
"Upstream investment is around $400bn a year, which barely offset natural decline rates; global spare capacity is around 3mn b/d, it should be closer to 5mn b/d," he said. "We have 30-35 days of effective cover [in inventory] we need to at least double that."
He reiterated that the UAE's recent decision to quit Opec was driven by a desire for greater flexibility.
"We didn't move away from something, we moved towards something," he said. "We're moving toward a world that needs more energy, with demand for oil staying way above 100mn bl into 2040s, the world needs more of what the UAE produces."
