Brazil's central-western Mato Grosso state decreased its estimates for the 2025-26 corn crop exports due to higher domestic demand.
Mato Grosso's 2025-26 corn exports outlook decreased by nearly 11pc in the month to 23.1mn metric tonnes (t), according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. That is a 4.5pc drop from 2024-25 shipments.
Total corn demand outlook rose to 54.35mn t, up by 0.4pc from the previous month, driven by the expansion of internal demand to cover needs from the animal feed and corn ethanol industries. That is almost in line with last season's 54.33mn t estimated demand.
Imea estimates the state's demand at 22.1mn t, 6pc above last month's forecast and up by 12pc from the previous cycle.
Interstate demand increased by 22pc to 9.2mn t from May. But that is approximately 11.6pc lower than in the 2024-25 cycle.
Beginning stocks for the 2025-26 season fell to 1.6mn t from the 2.2mn last month. Final stocks also dropped to 620,000t in June from 750,000t in May.
Imea readjusted figures for the 2024-25 crop this month. Total demand rose to 54.3mn t, a 1pc increase from the previous estimate boosted by regional demand. Mato Grosso's demand is now estimated at 19.8mn t, up by 4.6pc from last month's forecast and by 21pc from the previous cycle.
Interstate demand also rose to 10.4mn t from 9.8mn t in May. That is up by 28pc from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the animal feed and corn ethanol industries and more competitive inland prices for the grain.
Cotton
Imea's estimates for Mato Grosso's total 2025-26 cotton demand increased by 1.6pc to 2.7mn t, a 0.05pc dip from the 2024-25 season.
Exports for 2025-26 are estimated at almost 2.1mn t, up by 50,540t on the month and by 0.4pc from the total shipped in the 2024-25 cycle.
Mato Grosso's cotton demand projection was revised downwards by 5,900t to 40,320t. Still, that is a 5.2pc increase on the year. Imea estimates interstate demand at almost 606,430t, 1.8pc below the previous season's.
The forecast for final stocks decreased by 8.4pc on the month to 698,596t, down by around 18.5pc from the 2024-25 cycle.
The outlook for the 2024-25 crop's interstate demand was stable at 617,545t, 5.8pc above the 2023-24 season. But Mato Grosso's demand estimate decreased by 7.4pc on the month to 38,320t, up by nearly 39pc from the previous cycle. Exports are expected to reach almost 2.1mn t, up by around 13.5pc from the 2023-24 cycle.
Soybeans
Imea kept its supply and demand outlook for the 2026-27 and 2025-26 soybean crops stable from May's outlook.
Imea forecasts interstate demand at 5.2mn t for the 2026-27 season, stable from the previous estimate and down by 8.3pc from the 2025-26 crop. The exports forecast remains at 30.5mn t, down by 5pc from the previous season.
Mato Grosso's consumption estimates were stable at 13.7mn t, up by 1.9pc from last season, supported by higher crushing capacity in the state amid increased demand for biofuels and soybean meal consumption.
The forecast for final stocks remains at 140,000t, 78.5pc below the 2025-26 crop as supply is restricted.
Total demand for the 2025-26 crop is still estimated at 51.2mn. This is up by 1pc from the 2024-25 season. Interstate demand remains estimated at 13.4mn t, up by 0.4pc from the previous cycle.
