Romania could harvest a record 13.86mn t of wheat this year, according to results from the Argus crop tour, assuming the country continues to receive moderate rain and minimal storm damage in the next 3-4 weeks before harvest.
Romania's wheat crop has grown in potential in the past two months, according to feedback which Argus collected from producers during a tour of Romania's main producing regions in the first week of June.
Argus' projection is based on a yield of 5.9 t/hectares (ha), which — along with last year — is only the second time in history that Romania has seen wheat yields above 5 t/ha. Yields have been trending upwards year on year in Romania for the past decade, but 2026 pushes the very top end of this long-term trend.
Producers in the southeast of the country, closest to the port of Constanta, are expecting the greatest increase in yields compared with the 2021-25 average. Unusually this year, producers in the southeast, where wheat areas are most concentrated, received far more rain than those in the west.
In southern and eastern Romania, soil moisture levels were well above average emerging from the winter, with melting snow bringing further moisture and even causing flooding in isolated parts of the regions visited.
In western Romania — Timis and Arad are two counties which border Hungary and Serbia, and typically account for about 12pc of Romania's wheat production — a return of rainfall in late May helped to restore soil moisture after some fields had been verging on drought, given a very dry two months in March and April.
Wet weather is set to continue for the next two weeks. Relatively mild temperatures mean that the harvest is delayed by at least a week in the east, where crops would typically be first to arrive at port. Some producers expect hailstorms and heavy rain to cause further delays to fieldwork and potential damage to the otherwise record crop in the ground. Crops have generally resisted disease this year, which is one of the undesirable effects of greater soil moisture, although a certain degree of lodging, particularly for the barley crop, could still cause problems before the harvest.
The record yield adds to record harvest areas — estimated at 2.35mn ha this year and in line with Argus' estimate from April — reflecting minimal losses since planting and the winter period. Farmers in Romania have expanded their areas of wheat, together with barley and rapeseed, in the past four years at the expense of corn and other spring crops.
Mixed results for rapeseed, sunflower and corn
Romanian farmers tend to set aside less space for spring crops because successive heatwaves in previous seasons have led to poor results.
The remaining cornfields are concentrated in the east of the country, particularly in Braila, which is one of the areas with the most irrigation. The mild temperatures so far in 2026 have been favourable for sunflower and corn crops this year. The main issue for spring crops this year has been insect and bird damage.
The outlook for rapeseed has generally improved, although reports of very late planting this year created mixed expectations for this year's crop. Some had to wait until the last week of October for rain to ease and allow fieldwork, compared with planting in late August in western Romania. Isolated areas are expecting a very positive outlook for yields, but producers on the whole remain sceptical that Romania's rapeseed crop will surpass last year's record.
