The wheat yield outlook for the 2026-27 marketing year (July–June) is showing signs of improvement in central-northwest France, with production prospects looking stronger on day three of the Argus crop tour than those observed earlier in the week.
Yields in Loir-et-Cher and Eure-et-Loir are overall holding closer to the seven-year truncated average, which excluded the yields in 2024-25 that were not representative, supported by more favourable conditions during key spring stages, although agronomic constraints remain visible across fields.
Loir-et-Cher's yield potential is estimated at 6.8 t/hectare (ha), 1pc below the seven-year truncated average. Early nitrogen applications were not fully assimilated by crops, which slowed vegetative growth and limited tillering capacity. There have been fewer ears per square metre in several plots. Weed pressure has also weighed on crop development, with farmers reporting reduced herbicide efficacy following dry autumn conditions.
Further north, conditions improve in Eure-et-Loir, where yield potential is projected at 8.1 t/ha, or 3pc above the seven-year average. Biomass is visibly stronger, compared with Loir-et-Cher, reflecting better crop establishment, despite a dry March–April period. Farmer sentiment is even more positive, pointing to yields potentially up to 5pc above average, supported by relatively favourable conditions during flowering.
Across both regions, wheat flowering occurred under wetter conditions, which has increased disease pressure, despite fungicide treatments. At this stage, the sanitary risk is not considered critical, but remains dependent on weather patterns in the run-up to harvest, especially if alternating rainfall and warmer temperatures emerge.
The improvement observed on this third day contrasts with weaker expectations recorded in earlier tour stages, suggesting that central-northwest regions could help stabilise the overall French wheat outlook. Argus teams will return to the fields during the week of 22–26 June, with the final crop tour results to be published on 29 June in the ArgusAgriMarkets Weekly Outlook.
