France's corn crop could continue to deteriorate in the coming weeks as hot and dry weather is forecast to continue throughout the critical flowering period after two spells of intense heat, at the end of May and now in the final week of June.
Temperatures reached 40°C and above across France this week, just as 10pc of the corn crop in southwestern Nouvelle-Aquitaine — France's largest corn-producing region — entered into flower, according to data from national agency FranceAgriMer for 22 June.
Temperatures above 35°C can result in incomplete pollination in corn at a development stage that is crucial in deciding grain yields.
Rain forecast for the coming days is mostly in the form of thunderstorms creating scattered showers, which may only replenish soil moisture in isolated areas, rather than providing widespread relief.
FranceAgriMer rated 76pc of the corn crop in "good-to-excellent" condition and 7pc as "poor-to-very-poor" as of 22 June, coinciding with the start of this week's heatwave.
The situation could develop into a scenario comparable to 2022, when a heatwave later in the season, in mid-July, coincided with over 80pc of the crop at flowering stage. This led to the share of 2022 crop rated "good-to-excellent" halving between mid-July and the harvest in September-October, while close to 30pc of the crop that year ended up as "poor-to-very-poor".
Potential losses to France's corn crop have already lent some support to Euronext wheat futures, with the Paris-listed November corn futures contract holding at a premium to December wheat futures over the past seven days. As a result, Euronext wheat prices — and by extension, physical offers of French wheat — have become increasingly competitive against corn delivered to Europe at major import markets in Spain and Rotterdam. Feed buyers could respond by turning away from imported or domestic corn and towards EU wheat and barley as a result. This has offset some of the pressure on Euronext wheat futures from heavy global wheat supply and building harvest pressure in the Black Sea.
