Australia is likely to produce less oil in the fiscal year ending 30 June 2027 than previously forecast, according to the federal government's commodity forecaster, the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE).
The OCE cut its forecast for Australia's crude oil and condensate production to 222,000 b/d in 2026–27 from 237,000 b/d in its previous outlook, according to the June Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) report released on 3 July.
Australia is expected to produce just 209,000 b/d in 2027-28, down by 11pc from 235,000 b/d forecast for 2025-26. Crude imports for refining purposes are also forecast to increase into next decade (see table).
The revision reflects ongoing oilfield depletion, particularly in Western Australia's offshore Carnarvon Basin, where the OCE said several fields are nearing end of life.
Australia's LPG output is forecast to rise slightly from the previous fiscal year through 2027-28 before beginning to decline.
Higher prices are expected to support earnings, with rising oil values projected to increase 2025-26 export earnings by A$2.3bn ($1.6bn) to A$10.4bn, and 2026-27 earnings by A$2.5bn to A$9.9bn.
Globally, the OCE noted that declining oil demand in OECD countries is due to lower road transport fuel consumption and increased adoption of EVs, while efficiency gains for internal combustion engines also cuts fuel demand. This trend is being partially offset by rising jet fuel consumption.
| Australia's crude, condensate and LPG forecasts | (b/d) | ||||||
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 (f) | 2026-27 (f) | 2027-28 (f) | 2028-29 (f) | 2029-30 (f) | 2030-31 (f) | |
| Total crude/condensate production | 263,000 | 235,000 | 222,000 | 209,000 | 188,000 | 177,000 | 170,000 |
| Crude/condensate exports | 251,000 | 244,000 | 213,000 | 201,000 | 180,000 | 173,000 | 166,000 |
| Crude/condensate imports | 169,000 | 189,000 | 207,000 | 207,000 | 207,000 | 207,000 | 207,000 |
| LPG production | 90,000 | 91,000 | 97,000 | 98,000 | 97,000 | 95,000 | 93,000 |
| f - forecast | |||||||
| Source: OCE REQ | |||||||
