A government-commissioned report evaluating unconventional gas development in Mexico has recommended banning hydraulic fracturing in the Tampico-Misantla basin and imposing strict water and environmental safeguards elsewhere.
President Claudia Sheinbaum created the committee of 56 scientists and experts in April to assess whether Mexico can safely develop its estimated 141.5 Tcf of unconventional gas resources using newer hydraulic fracturing technologies while minimizing environmental and social impacts.
State-owned Pemex's 10-year strategy aims to lift unconventional gas production from 20mn cf/d in 2026 to 1.159 Bcf/d by 2030 and 3.196 Bcf/d by 2035, part of government efforts to reduce dependence on US gas imports.
Of the 141.5 Tcf in prospective gas identified by the report, 20.7 Tcf, or 15pc, are located in the Tampico-Misantla basin, where the commission is ruling out fracking. The report cites the region's higher population density, including many indigenous communities, and highly biodiverse rainforests as reasons to place Tampico-Misantla, situated in the central Huasteca region and Veracruz on the Gulf, off limits. Industry sources also note the far greater geological complexity of the basin's gas deposits.
The remaining 85pc of resources are found in two northeastern formations on the Texas border: the Sabinas-Burro-Picachos formation, which spans Coahuila and Nuevo León, with 67 Tcf, 47.3pc, and 53.8 Tcf, with 38pc, in the Burgos basin, located in Tamaulipas state and geologically tied to Texas' massively important Eagle Ford play across the border.
Sheinbaum said last week said that her government would accept the panel's conclusions.
The report also recommends prohibiting freshwater use for fracking. Projects would instead need access to underground saltwater, typically found at depths of 1,000-1,500m, with testing confirming hydraulic separation from freshwater aquifers. At least 75pc of water used should be recycled or reused.
The debate will move to congress when the next legislative session begins in September, where support is not guaranteed even within Sheinbaum's Morena party. But the plan has gained backing from opposition figures, including lower-house president Kenia Lopez.
"Fracking must be considered as a means to strengthen energy sovereignty, reduce foreign dependency and secure the energy supply our country requires," Lopez said, while calling for strict environmental, technical and regulatory safeguards.
Projects would begin with informed public consultations with nearby communities, followed by hydrogeological and environmental studies to assess resources, profitability and baseline conditions, including comprehensive mapping of water supplies. Consultations should continue throughout development and operations.
For the Burgos and Sabinas-Burro-Picachos basins in northeastern Mexico, the panel recommends focusing development on "sweet spots" combining the largest resources with suitable hydrological conditions and technologies.
Other recommendations include independent scientific monitoring of aquifers, regional water use, seismic activity and ecosystems; circular-economy waste management; preference for local suppliers and gradual elimination of gas flaring.
Sheinbaum aims to raise domestic gas output from the current 4 Bcf/d to 5 Bcf/d by 2030.
Even if the plan advances, industry sources tell Argus it remains unclear how Pemex would fund development or secure the technical expertise needed to meet its unconventional gas targets.
