China's imported spodumene market has remained relatively stable on broadly balanced market fundamentals, with its direction in the coming months likely to depend on how supply and demand dynamics evolve.
Argus assessed 6pc spodumene concentrate at $2,020-2,120/t cif China on 11 August, unchanged from 4 August. Prices held steady over the period, as increased supply from Zimbabwe offset the impact of higher lithium salt prices and prevented further gains.
Argus launched the world's first 5-5.5pc spodumene concentrate assessment in December 2025. The assessment stood at $1,820-1,970/t cif China on 11 August, also unchanged from 4 August. The launch reflected growing demand for lower-grade material, as years of intensive mining have reduced average spodumene grades from around 5.5-6.2pc to 5-5.5pc or lower at some operations.
Shipments from Zimbabwe to China have continued to recover following the country's resumption of spodumene exports in April after an export ban introduced in February. This has been reflected in higher spodumene exports from South Africa, through which a significant portion of Zimbabwean shipments is routed. South Africa exported 111,514t of spodumene in May and 110,829t in June, up from 56,506t in April, according to customs data.
China's spodumene supply base is also becoming more diversified. Australia remains the country's largest supplier, while Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil, Mali and Zimbabwe have emerged as important sources in recent years.
Current lithium prices are viewed by market participants as attractive enough to encourage new project development and capacity expansion. Argus-assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate prices stood at 145,000-150,000 yuan/t ex-works on 12 August, a key benchmark indicator for the wider lithium market, up by around 20pc from the start of the year.
Supply is increasing as Zimbabwean shipments recover and additional capacity comes on line in other regions. At the same time, demand is also growing. The direction of spodumene prices in the coming months will largely depend on whether supply or demand expands at a faster pace, market participants said.
Global lithium demand has remained robust this year, driven by continued growth in the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors.
China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales continued to rise in July, with the penetration rate reaching a record 60.4pc, supported primarily by strong export demand. Higher oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East have continued to improve the cost competitiveness of NEVs relative to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles.
Energy storage systems are also seeing rapid global deployment. The sector has been characterised by accelerating project commissioning, expanding overseas partnerships by Chinese battery manufacturers and increasing competition among battery chemistries. Global cumulative energy storage capacity reached around 280GW at the end of 2025, up by about 67pc from a year earlier, according to industry estimates.
Strong downstream demand has also supported lithium chemical production. China's combined output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide reached 724,000t lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in January-June, up by 26pc from a year earlier, according to data from the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.
