Debate over the extent to which electric vehicles (EVs) will erode the market share of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and the impact on fuel demand has resurfaced following recent comments from a senior executive at China's largest new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturer BYD.
But the long-term outcome will depend heavily on the pace of technological progress, particularly in next-generation battery technologies.
Li Ke, executive vice-president of BYD, said in an TV interview with overseas automotive media outlet Carwow.es that conventional fuel vehicles have little long-term future in China as ultra-fast charging technologies become more widely available.
"In China, with the growing adoption of BYD's flash-charging technology, I believe ICE vehicles have no future. That is very clear," Li said.
BYD has launched its second-generation blade battery-based fast-charging technology, enabling charging from 10pc to 70pc in around five minutes and near full charge in nine minutes. The company had built 4,239 fast-charging stations by March and plans to have 20,000 by the end of 2026.
She also disclosed that BYD plans to launch vehicles equipped with solid-state batteries in 2027.
Li added that the transition may take longer in overseas markets, but argued that the long-term trajectory remains the same, with EVs eventually replacing conventional fuel-powered vehicles. Strong overseas demand continued to drive sales growth at BYD in August, after overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue for the first time in the first half.
BYD became the first major global automaker to formally discontinue production of pure gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in March 2022, shifting its focus entirely to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
The rapid increase in EV penetration in China over the past decade, together with the prospect of another step change driven by large-scale adoption of solid-state batteries, has remained a long-term threat to gasoline and diesel demand. China's gasoline and diesel demand is set to decline sharply this year as elevated prices accelerate fuel substitution, according to state-controlled refiner Sinopec's think-tank EDRI.
But Li did not specify whether BYD's planned 2027 solid-state battery vehicles would represent large-scale commercial deployment or limited pilot production. The distinction could have major implications for the future competitiveness of ICE vehicles and the pace of EV adoption. In previous comments, BYD said 2030 would mark the beginning of large-scale commercial adoption of solid-state batteries in EVs.
Many industry observers view solid-state batteries as a potentially transformative technology because of their higher energy density, shorter charging times and improved safety compared with conventional lithium-ion batteries. But large-scale commercialisation remains subject to overcoming challenges related to production costs, manufacturing yields and battery longevity.
Widespread adoption of solid-state batteries could trigger another phase of rapid growth in EV sales by addressing consumer concerns over driving range and charging convenience. Others argued that commercialisation timelines remain uncertain and that conventional lithium-ion technologies, particularly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, will continue to dominate the market in the medium term.
China remains the world's largest EV market, and battery technology development is expected to play a key role in determining the future balance between EVs and conventional vehicles over the coming decade.
