Canada's agriculture regulator has cut its outlook for Canadian canola and soybean exports by a combined 844,000 metric tonnes (t) across both the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years, pushing stock levels higher.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), in its September update, reduced its estimate for canola exports for the 2025-26 marketing year ended on 31 July by 144,000t, down to 8.96mn t, reflecting the slower pace of shipments during the marketing year. With that cut, AAFC also increased the production outlook by 418,000t to 22.2mn t, driven mostly by an increase in harvested area.
Some of this increase was offset by a 391,000t upward revision to food, seed and other industrial (FSI) use — following last year's increased crushing volumes — which is now placed at 12.9mn t. But that was not enough to offset the combined increase in production and cut to exports, with 2025-26 marketing year ending stocks revised up by 175,000t from the prior report to 1.9mn t.
The carry over of those stocks — along with an increase in Canada's projected canola production for 2026-27 — significantly increased the country's canola supply outlook for the current marketing year. Production was revised up by 451,000t to 22.1mn t, again because of an increase in the harvested area estimate. That higher production, combined with the increase in stock levels, added a total of 626,000t to 2026-27 supplies.
AAFC increased its canola FSI use estimate for the marketing year by 200,000t to 13.9mn t. But the agency also cut its export outlook for the marketing year by 300,000t to 7.7mn t, further boosting the country's stock levels. Ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year were revised up by 475,000t to 1.98mn t.
Soybean stocks move higher
Soybean exports for 2025-26 were cut by 200,000t to 5.3mn t.
The impact of that cut to Canada's soybean supply balance was paired with a reduction in beginning stocks for the marketing year, but the overall result was 31 August ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year were revised up by 143,000t to 429,000t.
For 2026-27, AAFC reduced its Canadian soybean production outlook by 44,000t to 7.46mn t, following a cut to its yield estimate. But exports for the marketing year were cut by 200,000t to 5.4mn t. With increased stocks and reduced exports, AAFC raised its estimate for feed and waste use by 150,000t to 400,00t. But, like canola, the result was ending stocks for 2026-27 being pushed higher, up by 148,000t to 543,000t.
Slight grain export, production adjustments
AAFC also made slight adjustments to its grain export and production outlook.
Durum wheat exports were revised up by 130,000t to 5.05mn t for the 2026-27 marketing year, which will end on 31 August 2027. Barley wheat exports were revised up by 200,000t to 3.5mn t.
Soft wheat production was revised down by 291,000t to 29.7mn t, following a cut to the harvested area estimate. Corn production was revised higher, in contrast to wheat, up by 149,000t to 16.5mn t following an increase in the harvested area estimate for the marketing year.
