Germany's readiness for winter was a source of debate at the Handelsblatt Gas 2026 conference in Berlin, with storage operators cautioning that low inventories could leave the country exposed to demand spikes, while THE argues that shortages can be avoided through imports from neighbouring markets.
Stocks could still technically reach almost 75pc of capacity by 1 November if injections were maximised at all booked capacity, down from 77pc at the start of September, Sebastian Heinermann, managing director of German storage operators' association INES, told Argus on the sidelines of the conference. But this is highly unlikely unless further measures are introduced to incentivise users to fill their capacity, such as subsidising variable storage costs, which currently make the THE October-January spread uneconomic, INES said.
Maintaining the injection pace of the past 21 days would leave sites only around 63pc full. Sefe's instruction from the energy ministry to fill an additional 8TWh by 15 December could provide an additional 3pc boost. But that would still create a 26TWh year-on-year storage deficit, equivalent to about 30 days of three-year average November-March withdrawals, leaving Germany with significantly thinner buffer than in previous years.
The risk is not simply how much gas is stored underground, but how quickly it can be withdrawn. Heinermann compares a storage facility to a balloon: when full, pressure is high and gas can escape quickly. As it empties, pressure falls, and so does its ability to deliver gas.
Depleted facilities could therefore still contain gas while being unable to deliver it rapidly enough to meet peak requirements during a late-winter cold spell. This is why German storage law sets a minimum fill level target of 40pc by 1 February. Assuming 66pc start-of-winter stocks and three-year average total November-January withdrawals, sites would miss this target and stand only 29pc full on 1 February.
INES illustrated the risk of deliverability issues using a recent demand episode. German consumption and demand for exports from neighbouring markets climbed to 6.5TWh on 7 January. Imports, including LNG, could only supply around 3TWh, leaving storage to meet more than half of total demand. Withdrawals were able to ramp up well above the three-year average January rate of 1.42 TWh/d, providing a level of short-term flexibility that pipeline imports and LNG cannot match, making storage critical for supply security on cold days.
Weather remains the critical uncertainty, as a colder-than-average winter could accelerate withdrawals and deplete stocks much faster. Heinermann cautioned against relying on an El Nino-driven mild winter, as long-range weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable and weather phenomena can shift quickly. The World Meteorological Organization expects El Nino to persist until February, but there is a possibility it gives way to a La Nina, increasing the risk of colder temperatures later in the winter.
"That's the bottom line for me: we shouldn't have to watch the weather and hope we make it through the winter," Heinermann said.
Austrian stocks provide a potential backstop
Despite concerns over low storage levels, Germany's market area manager Trading Hub Europe (THE) does not expect shortages this winter. Speaking to Argus at the Handelsblatt Gas 2026 conference, chief executive Torsten Frank said safeguards are in place.
THE's Long-Term Options (LTOs), announced last week, are designed to ensure grid balancing through March 2027, Frank said. Suppliers awarded the contracts must have gas available to meet their obligations, creating an incentive to inject or retain stocks. The action includes a "special tender" requiring delivery from storage sites in southern and eastern Germany, the regions most at risk of an early stock depletion. The four Bavarian storage sites — Bierwang, Breitbrunn, Inzenham-West and Wolfersberg — are only 31pc full, according to GIE data, compared with 58pc nationwide.
Germany could also draw on stocks elsewhere in Europe's integrated gas network if needed, Frank added. Austrian storages would likely be the first port of call because of their proximity to Germany.
The Austrian sites 7 Fields and Haidach, both directly connected to the German grid, are already 66pc full and hold around 25TWh of gas. But widespread cold weather beyond northwest Europe could run down Austrian stocks too and limit export availability to Germany. Italian stocks are also a very healthy 87pc full and can flow through Switzerland to Germany, although longer transport distances mean they would be less suitable for short-term balancing needs.
