Opec has again lowered its global oil demand growth forecast and now expects Chinese consumption to fall this year, it said today.
China has long been a key driver of global oil demand growth but the US-Iran war and disruptions to energy flows have weighed on its consumption.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec forecasts China's oil demand will contract by 60,000 b/d to 16.83mn b/d in 2026, down from 10,000 b/d of growth in its previous report and 200,000 b/d of growth before the US-Iran war began.
Opec expects China's oil demand to rebound next year, growing by 470,000 b/d to 17.30mn b/d.
The IEA first forecast a decline in China's oil demand this year in June and now expects the country's consumption to fall by 660,000 b/d on the year to 16.34mn b/d. The Paris-based agency forecasted global oil demand to fall by 2.5mn b/d to 102.5mn b/d in 2026 in its latest report.
Opec sees global oil demand growing by 180,000 b/d to 105.72mn b/d this year, down from a projected increase of 380,000 b/d in its previous report.
"While some of the recent oil demand data published may point to a temporary softening this year, especially for China, yet much of this information is still very much preliminary and may be revised upward," Opec said.
Opec has largely shifted its downgrades for demand this year loss into next year's growth projection. It now sees global oil demand growing by 2.55mn b/d to 108.28mn b/d in 2027, up from 2.36mn b/d in its previous report.
"This [2026] demand [loss] has been deferred to 2027, where we believe there will be pent-up demand," Opec secretary general Haitham al-Ghais said at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh this week. Before the Iran war, Opec had forecast oil demand to grow by 1.4mn b/d in 2026 and 1.3mn b/d in 2027.
Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast unchanged at 640,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027. Opec does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes an average of estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. This shows Opec+ crude output — including Mexico and the UAE — rose by 903,000 b/d on the month to 39.068mn b/d in September.
The UAE withdrew from Opec and Opec+ on 1 May this year, while Mexico is not bound by an Opec+ production quota.
