Countries' nationally determined contributions — climate plans — have improved in quality and scope, but progress in lowering emissions remains "substantially off track" to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and keep a temporary overshoot short, according to a report from UN climate body the UNFCCC released today.
The report took into account 127 new nationally determined contributions — climate plans — released between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026, representing 154 out of 194 parties to the Paris agreement. The 154 parties account for around 71pc of total greenhouse emissions, according to the report.
The report does not include the US — the world's second-biggest emitter — since the country officially left the Paris accord last year.
The UNFCCC found that GHG emission reductions — including land use, land-use change and forestry — stemming from the implementation of NDCs are projected to peak and decline by 2035, reaching 6pc below 2019 levels on average. The cuts would imply "best-estimate warming of 1.7-2.3°C by the end of the century", the report said, adding that "returning warming to 1.5°C would require substantial additional GHG emission reductions in the coming years".
The NDCs "show improvement, compared with the previous NDCs, in the quality and depth of information provided, as well as broader thematic coverage", the UNFCCC said. The organisation found that energy transition is a common theme in the NDCs and that electrification plays "an increasingly important role in reducing emissions while strengthening energy security".
"Against the backdrop of recent energy crises, almost two thirds of parties highlighted the contribution of mitigation measures to energy security, particularly through renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements," the report said.
The report showed that 27pc of countries referred "to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner" as per the call made at Cop 28 in Dubai and that 10pc reported targets for cutting fossil fuel fired power generation by 2035, representing a 258TWh reduction. Around 6pc of the parties included fossil fuel phase-out targets, according to the report.
The report found that parties in their NDCs increased their focus on creating enabling conditions for renewable energy deployment, efficiency improvements and electrification, with around 70pc reporting measures to improve electricity grids.
It also showed that 92pc of the parties included methane in their NDCs and, of those, 29pc pointed to renewable energy generation as a key supply-side driver of energy security by replacing imported fuels with domestic energy sources.
A total of 94pc of parties mentioned in their NDCs that they plan to use — or may use — voluntary co-operation under Article 6 of the Paris agreement and 81pc referred to the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes — when countries exchange emissions savings bilaterally to be counted towards their NDCs.
The UN Cop 31 climate summit due to take place in Turkey next month "can help address some of the key gaps highlighted in this year's reports with its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation, UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said.
By Caroline Varin
