US Democratic congressional leaders are promising to use their strong victory in the midterm elections on 3 November to seek new restraints against President Donald Trump, while leaving an opening for legislative deals that would lower consumer prices for energy and other goods.
Democrats on Capitol Hill have felt largely powerless for nearly two years as Trump and his administration unilaterally cut staffing at federal agencies, stymied the development of clean energy projects, pivoted close to Moscow's position in the Ukraine war and launched military strikes against Venezuela and Iran. Democratic leaders say those dynamics will change with their midterm wins, as they try to bring the kind of accountability they say has been nearly non-existent with Republicans in control of Congress.
Democrats are on track to hold at least 54 seats in the 100-member Senate and 253 seats in the 435 member House, although their majorities in both chambers are likely to expand once counting concludes. "Whenever Trump defies the will of the American people or the law, we will launch investigations, take him to court, and entangle him in legislative razor wire," the top-ranking Senate Democrat, Chuck Schumer, said on 4 November.
The party was able to leverage voter anger over the Iran war and inflation to achieve wins in states where Trump and the Republican party candidates prevailed for decades, including Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio. Democrats say although they will look into concerns about corruption and executive overreach, they will focus their new congressional powers on improving affordability. "The American people don't want us to get even," said House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, who almost certainly will become the next House speaker. "They want us to get things done on their behalf because life is way too expensive."
Midterm elections last resulted in losses of such magnitude for a president's party under George W Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010, prompting the presidents at the time to look for ways to co-operate with the opposition-controlled Congress. Few expect Trump to follow a similar course.
Co-operation and oversight
Newly elected Democrats say they want to look at areas of compromise that could give relief to consumers struggling with high fuel prices. Texas' Democratic senator-elect James Talarico said he supported Trump's proposal to suspend federal excise taxes on gasoline and diesel. "If we suspend the federal gas tax, we could drop the price of gas by 18¢/USG immediately," Talarico said on 4 November.
The most immediate outcome from the midterms could be felt when the Senate reconvenes this week to vote on whether to advance the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, a bill that aims to speed permitting for oil and gas, renewables and electric transmission. The Democratic outperformance is likely to "embolden" those who believe the bill gives too many concessions to oil and gas, investment bank TD Cowen wrote in a note to clients that cut the odds of the bill passing to 25pc, down from 40pc. Political analysts shared that sentiment. "It's an uphill road at this point, given the fact that there's the possibility of just getting a better deal in January," law firm Bracewell attorney Joseph Brazauskas said.
Even if the bipartisan permitting bill clears the Senate, it still must pass the House, where Republicans have a narrow majority. Far-right Republicans want to use the lame duck session to "lock in" conservative wins and stop "the Green New Scam", House Republicans' Freedom Caucus chairman Andy Harris said. Meanwhile, US representative Jared Huffman, a Democrat who is likely to lead the House Natural Resources Committee next year, said there should be a hearing before "jamming through a deeply flawed" permitting bill.
Democrats will only have so much power to constrain Trump, whose aggressive claims of executive power have found a receptive audience in the US Supreme Court, where conservatives hold a 6-3 majority. Even though Democrats could rein in the administration using spending bills, they still need Republican support on those bills to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. Trump could also block any bills that he believes are too restrictive, which would create the risk of a government shutdown. "I'll get along probably with the Democrats, unless they want to be destructive, but I have the power of the veto if we don't like what they're doing," Trump told reporters on 4 November.
Democrats next year will gain broad powers to launch investigations into the administration, including the ability to subpoena federal agencies and require administration officials to testify. Democrats are likely to push for details on foreign investment deals that Trump has negotiated, along with agreements related to the sale of Venezuelan crude and leasing rights. Senators have sought answers on hundreds of millions of dollars in tax savings the administration has given to LNG companies. "Subpoenas," the Senate Finance Committee's ranking Democrat Ron Wyden said in a social media post as the scale of his party's victory became clear.
The Iran blame game
Republicans are blaming the crushing midterm losses partly on the war in Iran, which angered voters who trusted Trump's anti-war campaign promises but ended up paying far more for gasoline, diesel and fertilizer. US vice-president JD Vance, who is considering a presidential run in 2028, said on 4 November that Republicans lost because of the war. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so," Vance wrote on social media.
Trump acknowledged that Vance's explanation for Republican losses was "largely true" because the war drove up gasoline prices. But Trump defended the decision to go to war. "If I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again because long-term it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."
The scale of the electoral outcome may have upended any plans from the Trump administration to resume hostilities with Iran soon after the midterms. The US military carried out a limited air strike on Iran's Qeshm island on 2 November, the night before the election day. But Tehran has held its fire, and crude futures benchmarks fell in anticipation that efforts to end the US-Iran war will gather momentum in light of a sweeping victory by Democrats.
The outgoing Congress by the end of the year is expected to vote on the Pentagon's request for $67bn in emergency funding to pay for the Iran war. The new Congress is also likely to receive additional requests from the administration to pay for repairing US military installations in the Middle East, which will revive long-standing discussions about the benefits of maintaining US military commitments in the region.
"I talked to enough people while I was on the ground there to understand the reality that our base in Bahrain is obliterated," says Democratic senator Chris Murphy, who visited the region in early October. Bahrain used to host the US Fifth Fleet. The largest US Air Force base in the Middle East, at Al Udeid, Qatar, is "usable, but at a much lower-level capacity", Murphy says.
