Libya's internationally recognised Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) has pledged to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15pc in 2035 compared with 2023, conditional on international finance.
The country submitted its first climate plan under the Paris climate agreement — or nationally determined contribution (NDC) — to UN climate arm the UNFCCC. It covers the 2026-35 period.
Without international finance, Libya expects its GHG emissions to rise by 20pc over the period, still an improvement on the almost 35pc increase expected under a business-as-usual scenario, the GNU said.
Libya expects most of the GHG reductions to stem from gas flaring recovery, which will capture and use natural gas currently wasted during oil production, reducing emissions while increasing energy supply, the GNU said. Gas flaring recovery projects are expected to avoid around 90mn t CO2e and save 40mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of natural gas for domestic use or export in 2026–35. Emissions cuts in power generation are also expected to contribute significantly.
Political instability since Libya's 2011 civil war explains the late submission of its first NDC, and also leads to challenging financing conditions, the GNU said.
Libya emitted 97.3mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023, with the energy sector — including not just oil, gas and power production but also transport — the biggest emitter by far, accounting for 88pc.
The country pointed to its substantial crude reserves, saying that the exploitation of oil and gas is an opportunity for investment and development. But it is also working to diversify its economy to protect itself from oil prices fluctuations and contribute to the energy transition and cut its exposure to environmental vulnerabilities, the GNU said.
Implementing Libya's emissions reduction measures will require an estimated $29.6bn over 2026–35, of which domestic finance accounts for 31pc, according to the NDC.
The energy sector will require the lion's share, at $28bn. But while the largest overall contribution to the cuts will come from gas flaring recovery, at 36pc, this is estimated to need just $1.9 bn, or 6.3pc, of the total finance. This compares with the power sector, which will contribute 26pc to emissions cuts but is expected to need $14.6bn, around half the total finance.
The transport sector will need $8.8 bn, or almost 30pc of the total. Funds will support fleet modernisation, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, electrification and public transport.
The GNU also pointed to state-owned National Oil Corporation's (NOC's) engagement in international initiatives such as the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0), and related tools including the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS).
The GNU has been assessing the viability of replacing diesel with gas for power generation. The switch to natural gas in the country's power sector could save 40mn toe in 2026-35.
Libya also needs to develop international partnerships to position itself at the "forefront of major research into hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen", the GNU said.
And the GNU wishes to make "full use" of the cooperative mechanisms provided for in Article 6 of the Paris agreement, which includes two international carbon market mechanisms. Libya is also looking at introducing a "gradual" carbon tax or carbon market, the GNU said, as a "tool to improve energy efficiency and to secure financing to reduce fugitive emissions or in the electricity, industrial, waste, agriculture and forestry sectors".
The GNU anticipates further GDP growth until 2035, along with a "significant" reduction in the country's carbon intensity even under the business-as-usual scenario. This is as the country starts from a "very high emission" level owing to the "total" absence of emissions reduction policies, it said.
