Guatemala in its latest climate plan submitted to UN climate arm the UNFCCC aims to halve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation against a business-as-usual scenario, provided the country receives sufficient funding.
The Central American country sets out a target for 2035 of 24pc lower GHG emissions levels than under a business-as-usual scenario and 10pc below its 2022 GHG emissions, in its third so-called nationally determined contribution (NDC) covering 2026-35 submitted to the UN on Thursday.
The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector would contribute 88pc of the targeted reduction, as the country aims to reduce gross deforestation, increase the restoration of forest cover, and achieve net zero deforestation by 2035.
A business-as-usual scenario would put Guatemala's GHG emissions at 74.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2035, or 18pc higher than in 2022, with 43pc stemming from the LULUCF sector.
Under the 2035 target Guatemala would halve its LULUCF emissions to around 16mn t CO2e. Under this scenario, the energy sector — including transport — would become the country's top emitting sector, although it is expected to record an increase in installed renewable power generation capacity and a higher share of biofuels in the road fuel mix. Other sectors would see relatively little change compared with business as usual.
Protecting and restoring the country's forests lies "at the heart" of the new NDC, the Guatemalan government said.
International support will be "crucial" to achieving this target and scaling up ambition in future NDC cycles, the government emphasised, pointing to the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance's financial obligations towards developing countries.
The government expects international support to come through climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building, and the country also aims to participate in "international carbon, biodiversity or other markets", under conditions that "generate additional benefits for the country", the NDC reads.
But Guatemala has yet to finalise its NDC investment plan, which will prioritise interventions and establish financial mechanisms to implement its NDC, the government said.
Guatemala's participation in cooperative approaches under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement — which includes two carbon market mechanisms — or other "results-based payment mechanisms" must be consistent with the fulfilment of the country's NDC while generating "benefits" for indigenous peoples or local communities, the government said.
