Aid deadline escalates Venezuela standoff: Update

Adds background on elections timing, political implications

The head of Venezuela's self-declared interim government is pledging that humanitarian aid will enter the country on 23 February, throwing down a new challenge for sitting President Nicolas Maduro, who is vowing to stay in power.

The date establishes a de facto deadline for Maduro and the armed forces that support him to stand down. It is unclear how significant aid could be imported into Venezuela if the borders remain blocked, setting the stage for a potential confrontation.

But Juan Guaido, the speaker of the national assembly whom the US, Canada and most of Latin America and the EU recognize as Venezuela's legitimate president, could also be politically vulnerable on 23 February.

This date is the one-month anniversary of his taking an oath as acting president. Followed swiftly by US recognition, Guaido had cited article 233 of Venezuela´s 1999 constitution, which cedes the presidency to the head of the national assembly whenever the sitting president is incapacitated, abandons the presidency or the popular will revokes his mandate. The opposition-controlled assembly determined that this occurred after Maduro was sworn in for another six-year term on 10 January, based on a 20 May 2018 election that was widely deemed abroad as fraudulent.

Article 233 stipulates that elections must be convened within 30 days. Guaido supporters inside and outside Venezuela have said that new elections will take place once conditions allow for a free and transparent process. This includes establishing a new independent electoral authority. But by missing the 30-day mark, Guaido could be targeted for detention, as the Maduro government has already done with numerous opposition leaders.

Guaido's main focus is getting aid into the country. Addressing a mass student rally in Caracas today, Guaido announced that 250,000 Venezuelans have registered as volunteers and called on others to join a network to help bring in and distribute the food and medicine that has been warehoused in the Colombian border city of Cucuta for over a week. He said mobile humanitarian camps would be established to reach life-threatening cases. Some nutritional supplements have already been delivered, he said.

"This will be a human avalanche to help our neighbors," Guaido said.

A second aid center will be established in the remote Brazilian state of Roraima, said Guaido.

Brazil's foreign minister Ernesto Araujo met yesterday with Guaido-appointed ambassador Maria Belandria and Venezuela's international aid co-ordinator Lester Toledo, and announced the opening of the aid center in Roraima on the border with Venezuela.

Two more aid centers will be established, Guaido said, most likely on other border points in Colombia and the Dutch Caribbean.

The expanding aid campaign comes as Venezuelan fuel supplies are running low, with just 10 days of gasoline supplies left in stock, according to a senior official with state-owned oil company PdV.

US oil sanctions announced on 28 January cut off PdV's imports of US products, leaving the company scrambling to secure alternative supplies. A shortage of naphtha is starting to push down heavy crude production.

At today's rally, Guaido reiterated a call on Venezuela´s armed forces to let in the aid and sever ties to Maduro. So far this has not happened, despite a few high-profile defections in recent weeks.

Maduro has said Venezuela does not need any aid and alleges that the campaign is a cover for a US-led military intervention. He has spent recent days overseeing military exercises at Venezuelan bases.

Washington denies that it plans to use military to force in the aid, but says that all options are on the table.

The only scenario for external intervention to help deliver aid into Venezuela will have to involve an international coalition, rather than the US acting alone, US senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) said yesterday. Rubio, who has helped craft the US administration's Venezuela policy, said Venezuelan military leaders should seriously consider Guaido's amnesty offer before aid deliveries begin, or face retribution for continued attempts to block such aid.

At frequent rallies, Guaido repeats his message for an end to the "usurpation" of Maduro, a transitional government and free elections.