Nuclear deal notice backs Tehran into corner

Europe and the US are closing in on Iran as it continues to step back its commitment to the nuclear deal writes Ben Winkley

A turnaround by the European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and fallout from the accidental downing of a civilian airliner during a military confrontation with the US is hardening Tehran's position amid growing US sanctions pressure.

The European partners to the nuclear agreement — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — have triggered its dispute resolution process, following Iran's latest step back. Tehran has been gradually rolling back its commitments under the JCPOA since the US reimposed sanctions when it pulled out of the deal in May 2018. Iran said on 5 January that it would take a "fifth and final" step to reduce compliance with the deal by removing restrictions placed on the number of centrifuges installed at its two uranium enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordow.

The foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK on 14 January said they will jointly trigger the JCPOA's dispute mechanism, under which a joint commission of all the signatories — including Russia and China — has 15 days to resolve the issue. Should that prove inconclusive, an independent element can be added for a further 30 days. The three say they did this "in good faith with the overarching objective of preserving the JCPOA". Iran calls the move "passive and weak".

"If the Europeans want to use the dispute resolution mechanism, they must be prepared to accept the consequences," the country's foreign ministry says. "The reality is that after the US announced its illegal withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions on Iran, the JCPOA should have been cancelled."

For all the actions Tehran has taken to step back from the JCPOA, it has not formally triggered the dispute mechanism. But it has repeatedly complained about European inaction to provide support since the US withdrawal, particularly regarding Iran's inability to sell its crude freely. US sanctions have cut Iran's crude exports by 2mn b/d — to an estimated 300,000 b/d, according to the IEA — but have fallen short of Washington's professed objective of bringing that to zero.

An EU-sponsored mechanism set up to bypass dollar-based transactions with Iran, the Instex exchange, does not function effectively, Tehran says. Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says the EU signatories have "bowed to US appeasement" and should "muster the courage" to fulfil their own obligations.

The US imposed more financial restrictions on Iran's economy earlier this month, after a brief period when rhetoric threatened to escalate into war.

New threats

France, Germany and the UK invoked the JCPOA dispute mechanism just two days after saying they had no plans to do so. Washington has threatened to impose new trade penalties against imports from the EU if it does not move closer to the US' Iran policy, German defence minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer says. A US official denies that Washington made the threat.

But the European action looks unlikely to push Tehran towards agreeing to a renegotiation of the nuclear agreement as part of a wider deal addressing Iran's actions, as Washington hopes. Iran's national unity in response to the US killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) general Qasem Soleimani earlier this month has rapidly been overtaken by a revival of bitter anti-government protests after the IRGC admitted responsibility for the destruction of Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 over Tehran following earlier denials. The government response has been a renewed crackdown on protesters, and a closing of ranks. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated a message of defiance in a rare national address on 17 January. And with parliamentary elections due in February, Tehran's guardian council has disqualified 90 sitting reformist MPs from seeking re-election, as well as thousands of other potential candidates from standing.