Guaido urges more overseas action to oust Maduro

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido is urging world leaders to step up pressure on the government of President Nicolas Maduro.

Speaking on the one-year anniversary of his declaration of an interim presidency that is recognized by most Western countries, Guaido addressed delegates at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland today.

"What we want is a free Venezuela, a democratic Venezuela, which respects human rights, where you can invest, and where we can also make the most of our oil reserves, so that we can unleash our potential," he said.

Among his proposals is a "blood gold" campaign to target illegal gold mining and the expansion of individual sanctions on Maduro associates.

In Brussels yesterday, Guaido met with EU High Representative and foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, whose office stressed EU support for "a peaceful and democratic resolution of the crisis, based on credible and transparent presidential and legislative elections" and urged a "concerted approach both amongst the actors in Venezuela and within the international community for a meaningful political process."

Europe is the second leg of Guaido's surprise international tour that started in Bogota on 18 January. After traveling to London and Brussels and now Davos, the US-backed opposition leader may visit the White House before returning to Venezuela, where Maduro continues to crack down on dissent.

Guaido's return is likely to coincide with joint US-Colombian military exercises that kick off today and end on 29 January.

The opposition's "blood gold" proposal, meant to echo the UN-backed "blood diamonds" campaign, is aimed at severing a key revenue source for the Maduro government, which has so far resisted US oil and financial sanctions. Illegal gold mining is widespread among armed Colombian groups such as the ELN that have taken refuge in Venezuela.

Initial reaction was cool.

"There are no speedy or cost-effective mechanisms in the gold trading market for accurately determining the source of gold being traded illegally," a Caracas-based EU diplomat told Argus.

Targeting more Venezuelan officials with travel bans and other individual penalties is also problematic.

"Individual sanctions must be examined with caution, because there are many Venezuelans who perhaps merit sanctions but also have dual citizenship in EU countries like Spain, Italy and France, and as EU citizens they have rights," the diplomat said.

Although the EU recognizes Guaido's presidency, the continent has not adopted the more aggressive US stance, and has encouraged dialogue through the International Contact Group, a dovish counterpart to the Lima Group of mostly Latin American countries that are more closely aligned with Washington.

While Guaido rubs elbows in Davos, Maduro's vice president Delcy Rodriguez is in Madrid leading a Venezuelan delegation at an international tourism conference. The new socialist government in Spain is friendlier toward Maduro than its predecessor, even though Rodriguez is among the Venezuelan officials that are targeted by EU sanctions, which include a travel ban.

Ties that bind

Among the challenges for Guaido's cause is oil. European oil companies such as Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni have investments in Venezuela and regularly lift Venezuelan oil as debt payment by PdV.

"EU parliamentarians have no taste for oil sanctions," another European diplomat said. US oil sanctions prevent US refiners from importing Venezuelan oil or exporting products to Venezuela. The main affected company is Chevron and four US oil services companies, which have a recently extended sanctions waiver to continue operating in Venezuela.

Maduro remains in control of all Venezuelan institutions except for the National Assembly that his supporters insist is still headed by Guaido. But since disputed and chaotic internal parliamentary elections on 5 January, the legislature has grown vulnerable to an outright takeover by Maduro allies who are now exploiting Guaido's absence to force him underground. Opposition assembly deputies have been blocked by Maduro forces from entering the assembly building, and now meet at a remote site east of Caracas.