Groningen output may be zero some days this summer: GTS

Measures taken by Norg and Gaspool will enable the Dutch field's output to be brought down to the "minimum required", Natasha Fielding says

Production from the Netherlands' Groningen field could fall to zero on some days this summer, with the Norg storage facility and Germany's Gaspool expected to be fully supplied with converted high-calorie gas, Dutch system operator GTS says.

Norg is expected to be completely filled with low-calorie gas that has been created from nitrogen ballasting this summer, a GTS spokesman told Argus at the E-World conference in Essen, Germany earlier this month. Norg, which provides much of the seasonal swing in Groningen output, is currently filled directly from the Groningen field.

The plan is to not have to use Groningen to supply Germany's Gaspool market area this summer, with some "technical solutions" having been found to enable this, GTS says. Low-calorie deliveries to Gaspool at the Oude Statenzijl-Bunde border can only be made directly from Groningen's De Eeker and Zuiderpolder clusters. The combination of these two measures will enable daily Groningen summer output to be brought down to the "minimum required" for parts of this summer. This could mean that daily output could be zero over some periods this summer, "depending on the situation".

The compressors at the field need to be operated in such a way that Groningen can be ramped up quickly to support the system "if something fails". Technicians are investigating how this is feasible. Groningen output may still have to step up on days when northwest European low-calorie demand is higher than the nitrogen ballasting facilities can "handle". Overall field output does not have to be kept consistently above zero in order to maintain minimum flow rates at clusters and transfer stations, GTS says. The dual requirements to fill Norg and supply Gaspool in previous summers have prevented a sharper reduction in Groningen output over periods when heating demand has been minimal.

GTS expects Norg stockbuild to be made with converted high-calorie gas alone this summer, which could curb Groningen summer offtake substantially relative to previous years. It is possible that some Groningen gas may be used for the Norg stockbuild this summer, depending on the "physical situation of the system", GTS says, but there is a "low chance" of this being required.

The ability to meet Norg injection demand with converted supply alone suggests there may be scope to cut Groningen offtake even further than suggested by GTS in its advice on Groningen production this gas year. The system operator says Norg would be partly filled with converted gas, which would reduce the required Groningen production by 800mn m³ over the entire gas year.

Going, going, Groningen

Norg will not be completely refilled this summer, which is another measure GTS suggested to enable Groningen production to be brought down to 11.8bn m³ in a gas year with heating degree days in line with the long-term average. The company has advised the economy ministry that injections could be kept 1bn m³ below withdrawals this winter. It does not have a specific start-of-winter stock target in mind.

Groningen may no longer be required to supply Oude Statenzijl this summer, which could further curb field offtake relative to previous years. Shell and ExxonMobil joint venture Nam, which operates the Groningen field, will make a "small adjustment" so that Oude Statenzijl can receive converted gas, GTS says, without saying when this adjustment will be made.

And the commissioning of a German blending facility at Oude Statenzijl to enrich low-calorie gas with high-calorie supply will further reduce Gaspool's reliance on supply delivered directly from Groningen.