Coronavirus to slam growth in emerging Asia: World Bank

Asia-Pacific's emerging economies are facing a sharp slowdown in growth this year and regional GDP could even contract if the impact of the coronavirus outbreak is prolonged, the World Bank said.

Economic growth in China falls from 6.1pc in 2019 to 2.3pc this year under the bank's baseline scenario, in which a severe growth slowdown is followed by a sharp recovery. China's economy flatlines under the lower-case scenario, which sees a deeper contraction and a more sluggish recovery, with GDP expanding by just 0.1pc.

East Asia's other emerging economies — excluding developed nations such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore — will expand at 1.3pc in the baseline scenario but shrink by 2.8pc under its lower-case scenario.

Asia-Pacific was responsible for the majority of global oil demand growth last year and is the major driver of demand for many other commodities.

Several emerging economies in southeast Asia are also major raw material producers. These countries stand to be among the worst hit, partly because of their reliance on commodity exports, the World Bank said.

Coal, LNG and palm oil exporter Indonesia faces a slowdown in GDP growth to 2.8pc under the baseline scenario and a contraction of 3.5pc in the lower-case scenario, compared with growth of 5pc last year. Malaysia, one of the world's biggest exporters of LNG and palm oil, will see its economy shrink between 0.1pc and 4.6pc this year, depending on the severity of the pandemic.

By Kevin Foster