Further declines in European power demand expected

Power demand should fall further in the coming weeks because of the coronavirus pandemic as industrial demand gradually winds down, consultancy Aurora Energy Research said.

Demand has fallen across Europe as a result of measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

The decline has been sharpest in Italy, which was the first country to go into lockdown and recently enacted stricter measures. Last week, power demand in Italy was 26pc lower than in the first week of March and 23pc lower on the year, Aurora said.

The decline in other European countries has been far less pronounced so far (see chart).

Aurora expects significant decreases in demand in these countries in the coming weeks, particularly those with high levels of industrial demand such as Germany.

The drop in demand in Italy "wasn't a one-off" as soon as the lockdown was introduced, Aurora head of commissioned projects in central Europe Hanns Koenig said. Instead, demand reduced gradually over the course of 2-3 weeks. "We would expect something similar in other countries that introduced lockdowns later," Koenig said. This is because many industrial processes "can't be simply switched off from one day to the next, but take days, weeks and even months to ramp down".

Industry accounts for around 40pc of demand in Italy, Aurora said. This compares with 45pc in Germany, 33pc in Spain, 31pc in the UK and 28pc in France.

Aurora expects the combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) load factor will be 10-20pc lower in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus.

By Killian Staines

Change in European demand in week 13 %