Australian thermal coal production cuts ahead

Higher costs and lower thermal coal prices are likely to see Australian thermal coal mining firms report a loss for January-June, with some expected to cut production guidance to try to conserve weakened balance sheets.

Most Australian thermal coal mining firms saw profits slide in July-December last year with some, including BHP's New South Wales Energy Coal (NSWEC) division, slipping to a loss. Profitability has decreased further since January, with more firms expected to report loss-making operations.

The fall in the coal price since late March, combined with a rebound in key costs, has seen most operating at a cash loss in April-June, with hard decisions needing to be made about production targets for the 2020-21 Australian financial year that started on 1 July.

Coal-mining operating costs are expected to come in towards the top end or above guidance for 2019-20, with Swiss bank UBS estimating that BHP's NSWEC costs for the year to 30 June 2020 will be at $60/t compared with guidance of $55-61/t and Australian independent Whitehaven will be at A$75.20/t ($52.70/t) compared with guidance of A$73-75/t.

Argus last assessed the high-grade thermal coal price at $47.77/t fob Newcastle for 6,000 kcal/kg NAR and the lower grade at $36.39/t, down from $65.70/t and $51.52/t, respectively, on 1 January. UBS sees high-grade producer Whitehaven receiving an average thermal coal price of $55/t for April-June, down from $68/t in January-March, putting it only just above breakeven in the most recent quarter.

UBS expects that Whitehaven will try to ride out the weak price environment by increasing production to 21mn-22mn t in the 2020-21 financial year from around 18.6mn t in 2019-20 to reduce unit costs to around A$68/t in 2020-21 and bolster margins. Whitehaven's high-quality thermal coal gives it more sales options in an oversupplied market, but others struggling to place product are instead considering cutting production to conserve cash.

This option is made difficult by take-or-pay contracts that lock miners into paying for port and rail capacity regardless of usage, increasing fixed costs. Some of these contracts are coming to an end and increased competition among providers is seeing take-or-pay conditions eased.

Glencore, Anglo American, Peabody, Coronado, New Hope, Stanmore Coal, Terracom and Yancoal are all expected to reduce guidance for their thermal coal-mining operations when they report their quarterly production or financial results over the next two months. Many firms have already curtailed production, with Australian exports of thermal coal falling to their lowest monthly level in three and a half years in May.

By Jo Clarke