Opec+ compliance climbs to 103pc in January

The Opec+ coalition achieved 103pc compliance with its collective crude production cut in January, up from 99pc in December, according to three Opec+ delegates.

The group's 10 Opec participants were 108pc compliant with their output cut pledges last month, up from 103pc in December, while their non-Opec counterparts raised their collective compliance to 95pc from 93pc.

The compliance numbers remain preliminary and are subject to confirmation at the group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) assembly on 3 March. A ministerial Opec+ meeting will follow next week, when a decision is due to be made on output quotas beyond March.

The Opec group achieves its monthly compliance figures by averaging the production estimates of six independent secondary sources, including Argus. Argus' figures put January compliance at 104pc for the group as a whole, 110pc for the participating Opec countries and 95pc for non-Opec members.

The 19 countries participating in the supply restraint deal exceeded their quotas by a cumulative 2.793mn b/d from May last year to January this year, according to an Opec+ document seen by Argus. This does not represent a monthly average. It is the sum of the monthly amounts by which coalition members have surpassed their respective output ceilings. It is equivalent to just under 84mn bl of excess output, up from under 81mn bl that had accumulated over May-December.

Opec members accounted for 1.212mn b/d of the cumulative overproduction in May-January, according to the document. Non-Opec countries were responsible for 1.581mn b/d, of which 814,000 b/d was excess output from Russia.

By Ruxandra Iordache