Brazil may be short 2GW in November

Brazil may be 2GW short on power generation capacity in November because of its severe drought and need to import power from neighboring Uruguay and Argentina, according to Brazilian Power Sector Operator (ONS).

The margin between power demand and capacity with tighthen in coming months, to a 3,200MW surplus in October and a 2,107MW deficit in November, which would have to be met with imports. Argentina's connection to Brazil is limited to 2.25GM and Uruguay's to 570MW.

This scenario from ONS takes into account using the maximum available hydropower generation and would leave only 10-12pc water levels behind dams by the end of November, the end of Brazil' peak dry season. Brazil relies on hydropower for 65pc of its needs.

In its July-November power supply and demand analysis ONS increased its 2021 GDP growth expectation from 3pc to 4.5pc, increasing power demand from from 69,435MW average to 70,924MW on average.

The analysis also lowered the total thermal generation available for the year from 20,397MW average to 16,469MM because of maintenance or other issues.

The shortage of thermal and hydropower has Brazil searching for power import opportunities. Yesterday Brazil receive 562MW on average from Uruguay.

By Flávia Pierry