<article><p><i>Adds JTC inventory forecasts in paragraph four, Russian production in final paragraph</i></p><p class="lead">The Opec+ coalition has trimmed its forecast for this year's global crude supply surplus to 800,000 b/d, down by 200,000 b/d from its estimate at the end of June.</p><p>The previous forecast was itself a <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2345243">400,000 b/d downward revision</a>. Prior to that, the surplus estimate was 1.9mn b/d.</p><p>The Opec+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) now views supply likely to outstrip demand by just 500,000 b/d in 2023, according to a document prepared for today's meeting. </p><p>The JTC's latest base case scenario for market developments assumes OECD commercial crude inventories of 151mn bl and 103mn bl under the 2015-19 average over the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively, and then 18mn bl under the same metric by the end of 2023.</p><p>The JTC studies market conditions to inform Opec+ ministerial meetings. The Opec+ group <a href="https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2356463">meets on 3 August</a>, where officials will try to pave a path for September output policy now it has fully unwound the production cuts it implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic. </p><p>Some delegates said Opec+ could choose to keep output steady, because of production capacity limits. Some large international consumers, notably the US, have repeatedly called for higher Opec+ production to alleviate the effects of sanctions against Russia. Moscow's production rose from 9.273mn b/d in May to 9.778mn b/d in June, sitting 885,000 b/d under the country's output quota for the month, the JTC report showed. </p><p>Opec+ achieves its production figure by averaging out the estimates of seven independent sources, including <i>Argus</i>. </p><p class="bylines">By Ruxandra Iordache</p></article>
