New York faces huge clean energy buildout

New York needs to add or refurbish almost 100,000MW of zero-emissions generation to meet its clean energy goals, the state's grid operator said in a new report.

The state will need between 111,000-124,000MW of clean energy generation by 2040 to meet its goal of a zero-emission grid by that year, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) said today in its 2021-2040 System and Resource Outlook. At least 95,000MW of that total would need to come from new projects or modifications to existing plants, assuming the state's remaining fossil fuel-fired stations are taken off line.

New York's total generating capacity at present is a bit under 37,500MW. Electrifying buildings and transportation, part of broader decarbonization efforts, will "rapidly" increase energy demand.

The state is striving to reach 70pc renewable energy by 2030, which expands to the 100pc clean energy by 2040 mandate. New York will need another 20,000MW of operating renewable capacity to just meet the earlier target.

"The sheer scale of resources needed to satisfy system reliability and policy requirements within the next 20-years is unprecedented," NYISO said.

Based on two scenarios modeled by NYISO, the state by 2040 will need between 27,000-45,000MW of "dispatchable emissions-free resources" such as hydrogen, modular nuclear and renewable natural gas, which are "essential to the grid of the future" but "not commercially viable today." Deploying these cost-effectively at scale will require public and private investments into the technologies, and even then deployment timelines may extend beyond New York's policy deadlines.

Without those resources, New York would "likely" need to retain fossil fuel generation past 2040 to ensure the grid's reliability.

Even with the new capacity, it is unclear whether the state would achieve fully realize its broader decarbonization goals, with the grid operator noting that it had not identified the resources necessary to cut the state's greenhouse gas emissions by 85pc by 2050.

Transmission constraints remain a hurdle as well, with limitations poised to force curtailments of renewable generation by at least 5mn MWh in 2030 and 10mn MWh in 2035. Those losses translate into an overall 5pc decrease in the amount of renewable power procured, with the state therefore unable to claim it toward clean energy goals.

New York will also have to be mindful of changing conditions in neighboring grids linked with its system, as nuclear refurbishments and retirements in the Canadian province of Ontario and surplus generation in other locations could result in the state importing fossil fuel-fired generation, which would undercut the state's attempts to decarbonize the grid.

By Patrick Zemanek