'Technical' Cop 27 to focus on compensation

The next UN Cop 27 climate conference in Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh will focus on technical issues, but compensation is likely to loom large against the backdrop of natural disasters in several regions, Ottmar Edenhofer of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) said on Wednesday.

PIK chief economist Edenhofer warned at an event in Berlin that while Cop 27 will focus mostly on technical issues, "distribution conflicts" are very likely to arise. Pakistan in particular, where the situation is "beyond all historical experience", will make its demands for compensation heard at Cop 27, which is likely to make for "unpleasant" debates, Edenhofer warned. The fact that the west still has not managed to meet its commitment on the $100bn aid package to help developing countries reduce carbon emissions and adapt to climate change will not make talks easier, "to put it mildly", Edenhofer said.

Heike Henn, climate, energy and environment director at Germany's development ministry, similarly warned of the west's credibility problem, typified by the failure over the $100bn aid package. This is now being exacerbated by the west's perceived backsliding as it scrambles for natural gas and ramps up coal firing. "We need to be clearer about the fact that while we have a short-term problem, we have not lost sight of the long-term problems," Henn said.

Germany is part of the consortium formed at Cop 26 to support South Africa in phasing out coal, but the country now imports eight times more coal from South Africa than a year ago, Henn said.

Germany will continue to push for coal phase-out co-operations, mainly in the context of the G20, Henn said, with agreements targeted with India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Coal phase-out agreements with these countries could also be a blueprint for similar agreements in Africa, Henn said.

Regarding carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement, most of the remaining political issues were resolved at Cop 26 in Glasgow last November, Oeko-Institut research co-ordinator for international climate policy Lambert Schneider, a member of the EU delegation at Cop, tells Argus.

And there has been progress on Article 6 technicalities, UNFCCC secretariat official Perumal Arumugam says. The platform for the multilateral carbon market under Article 6.4, the successor to the Kyoto Protocol's clean development mechanism, could be finalised next year, Arumugam tells Argus. The supervisory body for Article 6.4 met in Bonn earlier this month, where good progress was made, according to Arumugam.

German industry federation BDI's managing director Holger Loesch earlier this month expressed his fear of a "disastrous" Cop in Sharm el-Sheik, given how countries are now battling with energy shortfalls and inflationary pressures.

By Chloe Jardine