EU wheat exports revised down, corn imports up

The EU's wheat exports for this marketing year have been revised down from earlier estimates, while anticipated corn receipts have been revised up sharply, as the bloc's wheat crop struggles to compete in global markets and its corn harvest hits multi-year lows.

EU wheat exports are now pegged at 36mn t for the 2022-23 marketing year ending 30 June, down from 38mn t anticipated in July, European Commission data show. This would still represent a record high and remains above the 33.5mn t estimated by the US Department of Agriculture.

The downward revision comes despite expectations of higher domestic wheat output — now forecast at 127mn t, up from 125mn t expected in July. But this is in line with losses in the competitiveness of the bloc's wheat crop as increasing availability of Ukrainian supply since August has taken market share in the Middle East and north Africa from France, Romania and Bulgaria.

The revision is also in line with expectations of higher demand for wheat from the domestic animal feed industry. EU animal feed consumption of wheat is now pegged at 40mn t, up from 37.3mn t expected previously, as the bloc's poor corn harvest is anticipated to prompt a partial switch to other grains.

Weaker corn output — now expected at a 15-year low of 55.5mn t, down from 71.7mn t forecast in July — is anticipated to support the bloc's imports. The commission now expects EU corn receipts of 21mn t in 2022-23, 6mn t higher than its previous forecast. This would also be up sharply from 16.3mn t imported last season.

EU corn imports are already running at record highs, with 7.37mn t of crop received on 1 July-2 October, according to provisional commission data, compared with 3.77mn t over the same period a year earlier.

EU wheat exports have slowed in recent weeks as a result of weaker shipments from France and eastern Europe, with cumulative volumes since 1 July at 9.15mn t on 2 October, down from 9.48mn t a year earlier.

By Bilal Muftuoglu