Substantial CDR gap for Paris climate goals: Report

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology must be scaled up substantially if global warming is to be limited to levels set out in the Paris climate agreement, according to a recent report.

Scaling up CDR is an "urgent priority… if we are to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement", concludes the report, which was led by researchers from the University of Oxford, German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change MCC and University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Very few countries have plans to scale up CDR, which leaves a significant shortfall compared with what is needed to meet the Paris deal's goal to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and preferably to 1.5°C, the report finds.

The report therefore calls for "urgent and comprehensive policy support" to ensure the technology is scaled up as necessary, pointing to a lack of specific CDR commitments in most countries' climate policies despite more than 120 countries having net zero targets, which by their nature imply the use of CDR to tackle residual emissions.

Rapid growth is particularly needed in what the report terms "novel" CDR, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air carbon capture and storage (Daccs), which is required under "virtually all" scenarios meeting the Paris temperature goals and currently accounts for just 2mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) of CDR each year, according to the report.

The majority of CDR is currently achieved through so-called conventional CDR methods, such as afforestation, reforestation and forest management, which the report estimates totals around 2bn t CO2e/yr.

The next decade is "crucial" for scaling up novel CDR to ensure that sufficient technology is available to meet climate needs post-2050, the report says, highlighting that while a limited number of countries have explicitly proposed scaling up novel CDR by 2050, none have included this commitment in their nationally determined contributions to the Paris agreement for 2030.

But the researchers also emphasise the importance of emissions reductions in meeting Paris agreement goals, warning against too heavy a reliance on CDR. "Scenarios that limit warming to 2°C or lower require deep cuts to emissions in addition to, not in place of, CDR," the report says, while larger emissions cuts would also provide some protection against uncertainties surrounding the scale-up of CDR technology.

Swiss company Climeworks said last week that it has made its first CDR deliveries to corporate clients from Daccs activities. Its Orca Daccs facility in Iceland can capture up to 4,000t of CO2/yr, while a second facility currently under construction, Mammoth, is expected to capture up to 36,000t of CO2/yr.

Trading firm Trafigura has committed to purchasing at least 50,000t of net CDR credits by 2030 alongside its existing direct emissions reduction commitments, in line with its pledge under the First Movers Coalition.

By Victoria Hatherick