French CBC costs down on nuclear outlook

French power import costs from major neighbouring countries in monthly cross-border capacity (CBC) auctions decreased year on year due to scheduled higher nuclear availability.

French implied net import costs from Germany and Spain on the Jao CBC auctions for April concluded on Thursday, ending at €7.43/MWh and €15.45/MWh, respectively, down year on year from €51.23/MWh and €21.12/MWh. The French CBC implied premiums to each of these markets had reached €90.16/MWh and €117.27/MWh, respectively, in the auction for January delivery, coming down from around €177-178/MWh and €261-274/MWh for November and December.

And France continued at an implied discount to Italy for April, at €15.33/MWh — the widest in eight months and flipping from a €19/MWh implied premium for April 2022. Argus assessed France at premiums of €9.25/MWh to Germany and €19.70/MWh to Spain for April delivery on Thursday, while the French discount to Italy April closed at €16.30/MWh.

French nuclear unavailability for April is currently scheduled at 21.9GW, so far 7.7GW below April last year, although rising by about 800MW since mid-March. Unavailable nuclear capacity for April was estimated at 19.4GW in early February.

Nuclear power output has been 34.8GW this month, decreasing month on month for the first time since August owing to a wave of unplanned strike action affecting state-owned EdF's nuclear facilities. Nuclear power has covered about 63.4pc of the French demand during March, while the 42.7GW of nuclear produced in February met 70.6pc of domestic electricity demand.

The Jao auction for April awarded 180MW of French net import capacity from Germany — the highest so far in 2023 — rising by 80MW on the month due to a 160MW month-on-month fall of CBC in the German direction. The Jao auction allocated 125MW net capacity in the Germany direction in April last year.

France flipped on the month to 189MW of net import capacity from Spain from 610MW net export capacity. French net CBC export capacity to Italy went down to 458MW, the lowest since August.

France at larger premium to Germany in peak load

The average French premium to Germany in the day-ahead market is running at €15.28/MWh this year — compared with a front-quarter premium to Germany of €37.35/MWh at the end of December — with French net imports from Germany at 2.1GW this year. French net imports during peak load — 08:00-20:00 — have been at 1.7GW, with the French average premium to Germany as high as €21.22/MWh at 10:00 and €22.54/MWh at 19:00.

Net French exports to Italy have averaged 2.6GW since the start of the year, virtually unchanged between peak and base load. The French spot has been, on average, €26.46/MWh lower than Italy since the beginning of the year.

EdF estimates nuclear output to range between 300-330TWh during this year.

By Gabriel Lorca Aicardi

French CBC imports costs from Germany, Spain €/MWh

French nuclear unavailability GW