Metal futures: Prices drop amid US, China data

Base metal prices fell further in official trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Tuesday, as weaker manufacturing data out of the US and China weighed on investors' sentiment with US investment bank Goldman Sachs slashing its 2025 copper price forecast.

Three-month LME copper prices fell by 1.9pc to $8,980/metric tonne (t) in today's official session, while in the US, the copper contract for the next active month on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange dropped by 2.4pc to $4.09/lb.

In the US, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in today at 47.2 in August compared with 46.8 in July and lower than the 48 forecast by analysts in a Trading Economics survey. It was the fifth consecutive month under 50, signaling contraction for the manufacturing segment, even as services have continued to expand. That came after China's Bureau of Statistics reported a contraction in its own August manufacturing PMI report last week.

Goldman Sachs cut its copper price forecast for next year by almost a third as the economic slowdown in China is expected to forestall a projected rally in the red metal, with the bank's prediction for end-2024 copper prices now being pushed to 2026, according to a research note published by the company.

Goldman Sachs now expects copper prices to average $10,100/t next year, from earlier forecasts of around $15,000/t, while it expects prices to reach $12,000/t after the end of 2025, having previously pegged that for the end of this year.

The bank has also dropped its 2025 price forecast for aluminum to $2,540/t from $2,850/t previously.

Three-month aluminum prices edged down by 0.4pc to $2,405/t.

In Europe, German carmaker Volkswagen informed its employees' representative on Monday that it is considering shutting two German factories, which would be the first time it has ever closed facilities in its home nation. The company is seeking large cost savings amid the transition to a larger share of electric vehicles (EVs) in its fleet, as carmakers across the west face huge pressure from China's EV manufacturers, which enjoy much higher profit margins.

Three-month nickel prices fell by 0.8pc to $16,520/t, and three-month zinc fell by 1.1pc to $2,805/t.

Three-month lead nudged down by 0.3pc to $2,043/t, and three-month tin dropped by 1pc to $30,900/t.

The October forward contract for WTI, the US crude benchmark, fell by $3.21/bl to $70.34/bl.