The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) has downgraded its 2024 steel demand forecast — it now sees demand falling by 0.9pc to 1.751bn t, against the for a 1.7pc increase. It sees 2025 demand rising by 1.2pc to 1.772bn t.
The 2024 downgrade reflects declining household purchasing power, tight monetary conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty, the association said. High costs and financing constraints in the construction industry continue to erode steel demand.
Most of the major economies, including China, are likely to record lower steel demand in 2024, although India bucks the trend, with robust demand growth expected through 2025.
China's steel demand is expected to drop by 3pc in 2024 and by another 1pc in 2025, although greater government support could reverse this trend. Demand in developing economies outside China is projected to grow by 3.5pc in 2024 and 4.2pc in 2025, driven by India.
In developed economies, steel demand is expected to fall by 2pc in 2024, but could grow by 1.9pc in 2025, driven by a recovery in the EU and — to a lesser extent — in the US and Japan. Manufacturing activity globally remains weak because of economic uncertainty and high costs, but Worldsteel is "cautiously optimistic" about a recovery in 2025.
Automotive industry output has slowed this year following a robust 2023. Light vehicle manufacturing forecasts have been revised down because of high inventories and a slowdown in battery electric vehicle sales. The association expects light vehicle output to see "moderate" growth next year.
The green transition is supporting steel demand, with significant increases projected for global infrastructure investments and renewable energy projects by the end of the decade.
