Chinese antimony prices are likely to extend an uptrend in the near term on continued concentrate feedstock supply tightness, which may outweigh moderate downstream demand growth.

Argus last assessed prices for 99.85pc grade antimony metal at 156,000-160,000 yuan/t ($21,399-21,948/t) on 27 February, up by Yn15,000/t from 21 January. Suppliers floated even higher offers and withheld material from sales today, market participants told Argus.

China produced 4,310t of antimony metal in January, down by 28pc from a year earlier and by 21pc from December 2024, data from the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association (CNMA) show. Trioxide output declined to 6,151t in the same month, down by 30pc from a year earlier and by 25pc from a month earlier. Domestic production is unlikely to rise significantly in February-March because many smelters have continued to cut or suspend production owing to a lack of feedstock availability.

A source at a Hunan-based smelter said it will not restart production until April and will not sell stocks because it only has 100-200t of stock in hand. "We are unable to secure sufficient concentrate supplies and have to keep our furnaces closed," said a second source.

Major antimony producers maintained metal production in 2024, supported by term contracts for imported concentrate supplies. But they have secured limited supplies since the beginning of 2025 when the term contracts expired. Major producers including Hsikwangshan Twinkling Star, Chenzhou Mining and Jiefu have stopped offering prices for the metal and have opted to use their metal output to feed their own trioxide production given the continued supply shortage of ore feedstock.

It is difficult to secure the metal despite downstream buyers showing interest in making purchases, a trader in southern China said.

China is the world's dominant metal and trioxide supplier, accounting for 80pc of global supply, and Chinese export controls have tightened antimony availability outside of the country. The export controls, which have been effective from September, have also pushed up international antimony prices to more than double the prices in China. This price premium has made non-Chinese concentrate suppliers more inclined to sell their ores to smelters outside of the country that can afford higher offers, leading to tight ore supply in China since January.

Downstream Demand

Demand for antimony from the solar glass industry is likely to grow by mid-2025 because consumers in the photovoltaic (PV) industry are poised to install more equipment before 1 June to avoid profit reduction. A change in the Chinese government's policy on newly-added PV projects that may squeeze the PV industry's profit margins will come into effect in June.

China's solar glass industry has been a fast-growing consumer market for antimony in the past three years. Solar glass producers use sodium pyroantimonate — a downstream product of antimony — as a refining agent. Antimony demand from the PV industry rose steadily to around 38,500t in 2024 from 34,000t in 2023 and 18,700t in 2022, according to industry data.

But market participants are unsure how long the price uptrend will continue because export controls on antimony have dampened overall demand. Antimony exports accounted for around 30-40pc of total Chinese production before the export controls were implemented. China's trioxide exports fell by 15pc on the year to 30,422t in 2024 from 35,795t in 2023. The US' higher tariffs on Chinese imports may disrupt exports of numerous downstream antimony products and weigh on demand for the metal.