Chinese bismuth metal prices have reached a ten-year high, driven by a continued supply shortage, with potential to rise further given stronger investment buying interest, market participants told Argus.

Argus last assessed prices for 99.99pc metal at 100,000-110,000 yuan/t ($13,781-15,159/t) ex-works on 6 March, up from Yn92,000-94,000/t ($12,679-12,955/t) on 4 March and the highest since 29 January 2015, when prices stood at Yn105,000-108,000/t.

Producers and traders have suspended quoting prices and withheld material from sales in the recent days on expectations that the uptrend will continue in the near term, with limited spot market activity over the past week.

Tight supplies

A Hunan-based smelter has suspended production in the past month owing to a lack of feedstock supplies like crude bismuth, concentrate, and tailings from tungsten, molybdenum, lead and zinc mines that contain bismuth. The smelter has stopped price quotations this week, except for contracted deliveries, owing to limited inventories.

China's bismuth metal output fell to below 1,200t in February, down by 300-400t from January because of the feedstock supply shortage, according to industry estimates.

Demand for bismuth trioxide has picked up since the Chinese government introduced a more rigorous licensing system on exports of bismuth metal and other critical metals on 4 February to counter the higher tariffs imposed by the US.

Bismuth trioxide was excluded from the list, which prompted many metal producers to switch to dealing in trioxide and reduce metal sales. Producers have consumed more crude bismuth and metal to boost their trioxide production.

Global bismuth metal output totalled 16,000t in 2024, with China accounting for 81pc of the total at 13,000t, data from US Geological Survey (USGS) show. Production fell by around 300t on the year in 2024 as a result of unstable feedstock supplies because of environmental restrictions and lower production guidance set by lead and zinc refiners in China, which typically produce bismuth as a by-product.

China's electronic trading platform Zhejiang Zhonglianjin launched bismuth metal contracts in March 2023, with three tradeable brands listed and only 17t of stocks in May 2023. An increasing number of market participants began to trade on the platform in 2024 to hedge risks from their long-term contracts, which has increased the total number of tradeable brands to nine so far.

The most-traded March 2025 contracts hit the exchange's daily limit at Yn150,000-200,000/t on 4 and 7 March, up from Yn107,275-107,400/t on 4 March, as participants on the platform built long positions. Stocks on the platform rose to 14,818t on 7 March from 13,980t on 28 February.

Market outlook

Prices are expected to rise to Yn200,000/t on the spot market in the near term given stronger market confidence shored up by buoyant investment interest on the platform, some market participants said.

But it is unclear how long the price uptrend will continue because the export controls on bismuth metal may weigh on overall demand and discourage buyers to bear the continuous price hikes, they added.

European bismuth prices soared to an all-time high of $32-36/lb duty unpaid on 6 March, up from $5.80-6.20/lb on 28 January, because of tight availability caused by Chinese export controls. But market activity has weakened significantly as buyers slowed purchases on the back of the higher prices.

China exported 2,612t of bismuth metal in 2024, up by 45pc from 1,798t a year earlier, according to customs data. Overseas buyers ramped up purchases to avoid supply shortages given uncertainties from geological conflicts and trade tensions between China and the US. But overseas shipments in 2025 may fall on the year because of the effects of the export controls.