Atlantic coking coal suppliers expressed frustration this week that prices have not improved despite an increasingly tight supply of US low and high-volatile A coal.

The Argus US low-volatile coking coal assessments remained at $185/t fob Alabama and $180/t fob US east coast, with weak demand in the Atlantic offsetting gains in the Australian premium low-volatile market. The high-volatile A and B assessments were also level at $175/t fob Hampton Roads and $162.50/t fob Hampton Roads, respectively, given limited activity and a stable price survey.

"Everyone is saying supply is tight, and people cannot figure out why prices are not higher," one major US miner said this week. "Demand seems to be steady, although China could be the loose cannon in the equation here."

China might start exporting large volumes of coal, which would weaken seaborne prices, he continued.

China has largely turned away from US and Australian exports in favour of lower-priced domestic supplies. With a surplus of Russian and Mongolian coals and falling prices in China, others in the Atlantic market expressed the same concern this week. Northeast Asian buyers in recent weeks have started indicating availability of Chinese coking coal for export as raw material demand continues to weaken in the country and stockpiles at the border with Mongolia have been pegged as high as 4mn t recently.

But suppliers warned that volumes in the spot market are hard to come by, and a slight change in spot demand could see buyers paying much higher prices. In a number of unreported deals in April, buyers affected by recent disruptions in Australia have shown that they are willing to pay at index levels or higher to secure the coal they need.

"Try and put a vessel of low-vol together. You can't do it," one supplier argued. If a buyer needed to source a cargo now, he continued, they would have to pay above $200/t for US low-volatile coal.

US producers found some room to celebrate when the US Department of Energy (DOE) added coking coal to its Critical Materials list at the end of last week. Suppliers of the commodities included in the list might benefit from quicker planning decisions, tax breaks and government funding.

A major US mining firm saw the change as positive, but warned that the real-life implementation might be underwhelming. "Our hope is that it will streamline the permitting process... that's our hope, but that's yet to be seen," the firm said.

But the move could also give the government more power over the market, some participants argued, possibly to the benefit of domestic steelmakers.

"It shouldn't be a big deal, but it paves the way to limit or restrict exports down the road," a US supplier said, referring to a renewed protectionist agenda in Washington.

The US restricted shipments of some microchip and airplane manufacturing supplies to China this week. China responded to a similar move in 2024 by restricting its critical mineral exports.