Private-sector analysts nudged up Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast in the central bank's June survey, after six consecutive months of downward revisions.
The median estimate rose to 0.2pc annual growth this year, up from 0.18pc in the May survey.
Yet, the 2026 growth forecast edged down for a fourth consecutive month, to 1.4pc from 1.41pc.
The growth outlook stabilized in June with US tariffs on Mexico and other nations in place and unlikely to change significantly in the short term. For Mexico, any shifts hinge on the upcoming US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement review.
Domestic security replaced foreign trade as the top risk to GDP over the next six months. Geopolitical instability climbed to third place following the Israel-Iran conflict.
Year-end 2025 inflation expectations rose for a third straight month to 4pc in June from 3.9pc in May. CPI accelerated for a fourth consecutive month in May to an annualized 4.42pc, latest data show, after reaching a four-year low of 3.59pc in January, according to Inegi.
Despite the acceleration in inflation, the central bank issued its fourth consecutive half-point cut to the target interest rate last week, lowering it to 8pc, its lowest since July 2022, but signaled a slower pace to the current rate cut cycle on inflation concerns.
Survey respondents maintained unchanged their end-2025 forecast for the central bank's target rate at 7.5pc in the June survey.
Expectations for the peso-US dollar exchange rate reflect the growing strength of the peso in recent months, tied to the US dollar's steady depreciation in global currency markets.
The peso is now expected to close 2025 at Ps20.13/$1, stronger than the Ps20.50/$1 forecast in May. The end-2026 forecast moved to Ps20.70/$1 from Ps21.00/$1.
