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Middle East conflict may boost Brazil ethanol demand
Middle East conflict may boost Brazil ethanol demand
Sao Paulo, 2 March (Argus) — Brazil's domestic ethanol demand could grow following the latest outbreak in fighting in the Middle East, under a scenario of rising gasoline prices that shift consumer interest in the coming months. Brazilian flex-fuel vehicles can run on either hydrous ethanol (E100) or gasoline blended with 30pc ethanol (E30), with drivers usually choosing the most economic one at the time of sale. Ethanol needs to be priced at 70pc or lower than gasoline to attract drivers, a ratio known as parity. The conflict in the Middle East is pushing crude and refined products prices higher on international markets. I n Brazil, state-controlled Petrobras has a heavy influence on gasoline prices, as it provides up to 90pc of the country's demand. Petrobras avoids reflecting immediate volatility from international markets, but the company could adjust domestic prices higher if the gap in arbitrage becomes too wide. Latest data show gasoline as more competitive than hydrous ethanol in all Brazilian states on the week ended 21 February, when parity averaged 73.8pc nationwide, according to regulator ANP. But market participants expect record ethanol output in the next sugarcane crop running from 1 April 2026-31 March 2027, which is bound to bring E100 prices lower in the first half of the season. The scenario of a gasoline price increase from Petrobras could further enhance hydrous ethanol's attractiveness over gasoline. Brazil created ProAlcool, a national program aimed at fostering domestic ethanol fuel demand and the country's energy security, in 1975 amid Arab oil crisis. As the world faces a new price shock, ethanol could play a role in addressing that challenge, according to Edmundo Barbosa, president of Paraiba state's ethanol industry association Sindalcool. By Maria Ligia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mideast Gulf naphtha premiums rally on rising tensions
Mideast Gulf naphtha premiums rally on rising tensions
Dubai, 2 March (Argus) — Premiums for naphtha cargoes loading in the Mideast Gulf surged to a two-year high today, underpinned by concerns over potential supply disruptions at regional refineries as the US-Iran conflict escalates. The Mideast Gulf naphtha premium to average spot assessments rose to $42.75/t today, 2 March, Argus estimates, its highest since it touched $44.75/t on 24 March 2024. The conflict has seen airstrikes across the Mideast Gulf region, with debris falling near several key refineries. The region's main naphtha exporters said that operations remain largely unaffected, but traders remain wary of supply risks if the conflict continues. Iran has already signalled it will not engage in negotiations with the US, raising concerns of a prolonged standoff and risk of regional instability . State-owned QatarEnergy reported drone attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Industrial City, temporarily halting output of LNG and related products . The company operates two 146,000 b/d condensate splitters at its Ras Laffan complex, and any disruption to them could potentially reduce naphtha output from the Mideast Gulf's second-biggest supplier to Asia-Pacific. But no confirmation has been provided on which specific facilities were affected, making it difficult to assess the impact. Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed that two vessels, the Zenovia Lady and the Front Cheetah , which were placed on subjects today to deliver 72,000t and 76,000t of naphtha, respectively, have been idled since the attacks on 28 February, indicating delays in loading operations. It is also unclear whether operations at Shell's 1.1mn t/yr Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant at Ras Laffan have been affected, which could further affect naphtha supply. Qatar exports an average of 970,000t of naphtha each month, with cargoes from Ras Laffan accounting for 20pc of total Mideast Gulf volumes in 2025. The majority of Qatari cargoes are shipped to South Korea, Japan, China and Singapore. Oman's Duqm Port was struck by drone debris, causing operational disruption, although it remained unclear whether the adjacent 255,000 b/d Duqm Refinery was damaged. Duqm Refinery has been exporting an average of 220,000t of naphtha per month since becoming fully operational in 2023. In Kuwait, state-owned KNPC reported today that debris fell on the 346,000 b/d Mina al-Ahmadi refinery, but operations were unaffected. Market sources familiar with the facilities confirmed that other major Kuwaiti refineries, including the 454,000 b/d Mina Abdullah and 615,000 b/d Al-Zour refineries, were operating normally without disruption. Kuwait's refineries together supply roughly 720,000t of naphtha every month on average. Saudi Aramco also temporarily shut its 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike, citing precautionary measures, although videos online showed plumes of smoke rising from what appeared to be storage tanks. The escalating conflict is threatening to disrupt Mideast Gulf naphtha exports to its largest market, Asia-Pacific. The majority of naphtha cargoes transit directly through the strait of Hormuz. Security concerns intensified after at least three vessels were hit by explosive projectiles near the strait over the weekend, prompting shipping owners to stay away from the region entirely. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has raised the threat level in the strait to "critical", underscoring the mounting risks to commercial traffic and increasing the likelihood of loading delays and disrupted flows . Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed several Long-Range 1 and Medium Range tankers carrying naphtha idling near the strait, signalling potential delivery delays. The disruption is being compounded by suspended operations at Jebel Ali and Duqm ports . By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf MR tanker rates jump following Mideast fighting
US Gulf MR tanker rates jump following Mideast fighting
New York, 2 March (Argus) — Demand, offers from shipowners and futures markets for medium range (MR) tankers loading refined product shipments on the US Gulf coast are surging today after the outset of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend. The US Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level for strait of Hormuz transits to "critical"today after Iranian missile attacks on commercial vessels. MR tanker operators around the US Gulf coast, a major alternative to stalled Mideast Gulf loadings, have taken note and are demanding significant premiums for loadings in the Atlantic. Commodity trader ATMI sought an MR tanker for a US Gulf coast-Caribbean voyage from 6-8 March, likely to carry diesel into the region. The shipbroker on the deal told Argus that shipowners Norden and Torm offered to carry the shipment at $2.2mn lumpsum, including $105,000/day in demurrage. The rate on that route closed the prior trading week at $1.2mn, while demurrage was at $57,500/d. Meanwhile, futures markets for the US Gulf coast-Europe voyage opened at Worldscale 320 on Monday, and will "probably stay around the WS350 level if not continue", according to a market participant. The rate on that route closed on 27 February at WS280. Spot market demand was otherwise high on what would typically be a slow Monday. Oil majors Valero and Chevron sought MR tankers for Peru and Europe-bound voyages, respectively, while commodity trader Trafigura sought an MR tanker for a Caribbean-bound voyage. Ecuador, Brazil and Argentina were included as discharge options on some of the deals. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf coast gasoline prices up on US-Iran conflict
US Gulf coast gasoline prices up on US-Iran conflict
Houston, 2 March (Argus) — US Gulf coast (USGC) gasoline prices rose by more than 5pc during Monday's morning trading after US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend led to higher Nymex April RBOB prices. Prices for Colonial Pipeline regular 11.5 RVP CBOB for cycle 15 scheduling have so far seen a 6.95¢/USG increase in cash values from the 27 February assessment to $2.101/USG during Monday's morning session, which puts CBOB prices at their highest point since 20 June, when the settlement was $2.140/USG. A 7.83¢/USG increase in the Nymex basis overwhelmed a comparatively small differentials loss of 0.88¢/USG as market participants reported CBOB trades ranging from April Nymex -25.25¢/USG down to -27.25¢/USG, as of 12pm ET. Though the strikes on Iran and the ensuing conflict has led to a 6.2pc hike for US crude benchmark WTI, the gains in regional gasoline prices are expected to be tempered by an oversupplied gasoline market combined with declining export opportunities. US Gulf coast gasoline inventories have posted a 6.5pc gain on the year for the current January-February period at 92.58mn bl, marking the highest average for that two-month period since 2020, US Energy Information Administration data show. But Gulf coast gasoline prices typically climb this time of year with the spring Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) transition period as refiners turn over their tanks to meet more stringent regional environmental regulations. The Gulf coast gasoline market moved to more expensive spring 11.5 RVP specifications on 26 February, raising CBOB prices by 16.67¢/USG from the earlier session. The transition has so far led to a decline in exports, which fell to three-week lows of 216,000 b/d in the week ended 27 February, according to trade analytics firm Kpler. However, the fighting in the Middle East will likely divert available tankers in the Gulf of Mexico and lift freight rates, limiting regional gasoline exports. In addition, refiners will favor exporting Gulf coast diesel barrels as distillates arbitrage between Europe and the US Atlantic coast opens following a rally in the European middle distillates market . By Hannah Borai Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.