China eyes higher EV, renewable energy use by 2030

The Chinese government has announced plans to accelerate achieving its peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, targeting much higher usage of new energy vehicles in the next decade.

Beijing is eyeing a 40pc share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and clean energy-powered vehicles in the country's total vehicles by 2030, double from an earlier target of 20pc by 2025, according to an action plan issued by the country's state council yesterday.

China will push the use of NEVs, gradually reduce sales of traditional fuel vehicles and promote replacement of urban public service vehicles with electric vehicles and increase the use of heavy freight vehicles powered by electricity, hydrogen fuel and liquefied natural gas, according to the plan.

The moves are in a bid to achieve the country's goal of peak carbon emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to rise to 25pc by 2030, while the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP down by over 65pc from 2005, the plan said.

China's total NEV output and sales during January-September reached fresh highs of 2.166mn and 2.157mn units, up by 184.5pc and 185.3pc on the year, respectively. Current rapid growth in the NEV market is expected to help China achieve the 20pc target for 2025 within the next two years. NEV sales currently account for 17.3pc of China's vehicle sales, with 19.5pc for new energy passenger vehicles, according to China Automotive Manufacturers Association.

China will also promote other renewable energy in the next decade, with combined installed capacity for wind power and solar power generation targeted at over 12bn KW by 2030, the plan said. It is also on target to add 40mn KW of installed hydropower capacity during the country's 14th and 15th five-year plans respectively.

China aims to accelerate applications of new-type energy storage and deepen its reform on the electric power structure, with installed capacity of new-type energy storage projected to exceed 30mn KW by 2025.

Higher NEV and power battery production is expected boost long-term demand for metal feedstocks such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese. China's import prices for lithium carbonate rose to $24-24.50/kg cif China yesterday, up from $23-23.50/kg cif China on 19 October and stood at the highest since Argus launched this assessment in June 2018.

The wind power market is expected to account for around 30pc of the global growth in demand for rare earth magnets from 2015 to 2025, according to Lynas Rare Earths, the largest rare earths producer outside of China. Wind turbines also consume chromium, cobalt, manganese and molybdenum. Chinese offshore wind capacity is growing rapidly, with the country having 9.4GW in operation and planning to build another 64.4GW, including floating projects.

China NEV output versus lithium prices (Yn/t)